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Mesoscale Discussion 1039
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN/E-CNTRL CO...SWRN NEB...AND NWRN
   KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 170200Z - 170330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
   NERN/E-CNTRL CO...SWRN NEB...AND NWRN KS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN CO FROM PRIOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   THAT OCCURRED OVER NRN CO. A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SE
   OF THIS ACTIVITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MAY
   ALLOW THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN CO TO CONTINUE SEWD AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN KS LATER THIS EVENING. THE WLY WINDS AT MID AND
   UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS POINTS FURTHER N...REFERENCE THE
   00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR...BUT NWLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE 0-2 KM
   LAYER SAMPLED BY THE KFTG VWP MAY HELP THE CURRENT CONVECTION
   ACCELERATE SEWD WITH TIME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   RADAR TRENDS REGARDING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN
   NERN CO...THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL...AND ANY
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN NEB WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE IN NWRN KS/SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT ARE WEAKER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES...MAINLY
   DRIVEN BY THE WEAKER WINDS ALOFT MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AND DIURNAL
   COOLING WHICH WILL TEND TO REDUCE INSTABILITY AS THE EVENING
   PROGRESSES.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38240396 39090457 39470357 40300235 40349995 39050002
               38250113 38260208 38240396 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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