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Mesoscale Discussion 1039
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...WRN SD...SWRN ND...SERN/E-CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171740Z - 171945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
   ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
   MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE
   THREATS...INCLUDING TORNADOES. WW LIKELY BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY SHOWN
   BETTER CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CUSTER
   COUNTY MT SWD INTO CONVERSE COUNTY WY. ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THIS
   AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
   60S BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING MLCAPE FROM 1000
   TO 2000 J PER KG. STRONGEST SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS A BIT FARTHER W
   FROM THIS AREA OF DESTABILIZATION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AS
   THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EWD. 

   CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING LARGE
   SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO. JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   BUT BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44320272 43580290 43190325 43040358 43070406 43270490
               44330573 45990566 46490597 47110694 47450723 47650651
               47390455 46230323 45610295 44320272 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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