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Mesoscale Discussion 1039
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...A large part of Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 151749Z - 152015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is forthcoming.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus fields are becoming increasingly agitated along
   a composite boundary extending west-east from west of Russell to
   southwest of Hill City. Explosive thunderstorm development is
   expected within this corridor in the 1830Z-2000Z time frame.
   Widespread strong insolation is supporting the erosion of modest
   capping aloft, and an upward trend is already noted in
   shallow-convective processes -- thus relatively early convective
   development is expected. SBCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg is noted south of
   the boundary, with 25-40 kt of effective shear. Initial supercell
   structures capable of very large hail and severe winds will be
   likely. Given the anticipated concentration of intense cold pools
   aided by DCAPE of 1300-1700 J/kg, upscale growth into a
   east-southeastward/southeastward-moving bowing MCS will likely occur
   thereafter. Widespread severe winds are expected, and localized
   pockets of 70-80 mph winds are also likely with line-embedded
   meso-vortices as convection advances across the region through into
   the late afternoon/early evening hours.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37179903 37700015 38540048 39219954 39859737 39519610
               38119588 37369604 37139665 37179903 

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