|Mesoscale Discussion 1039|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Areas affected...A large part of Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 151749Z - 152015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is forthcoming.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus fields are becoming increasingly agitated along
a composite boundary extending west-east from west of Russell to
southwest of Hill City. Explosive thunderstorm development is
expected within this corridor in the 1830Z-2000Z time frame.
Widespread strong insolation is supporting the erosion of modest
capping aloft, and an upward trend is already noted in
shallow-convective processes -- thus relatively early convective
development is expected. SBCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg is noted south of
the boundary, with 25-40 kt of effective shear. Initial supercell
structures capable of very large hail and severe winds will be
likely. Given the anticipated concentration of intense cold pools
aided by DCAPE of 1300-1700 J/kg, upscale growth into a
east-southeastward/southeastward-moving bowing MCS will likely occur
thereafter. Widespread severe winds are expected, and localized
pockets of 70-80 mph winds are also likely with line-embedded
meso-vortices as convection advances across the region through into
the late afternoon/early evening hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37179903 37700015 38540048 39219954 39859737 39519610
38119588 37369604 37139665 37179903
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