MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NERN KS INTO NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 110713Z - 110815Z
   
   ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE
   OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS
   /AROUND 20 KT/ AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
   HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM JOHNSON COUNTY KS THROUGH NRN MO.
   
   06 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD
   FROM CENTRAL IND THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO NERN MO AND THEN WSWWD TO
   JUST S OF MKC TO NWRN OK.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH MID LEVEL SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... WHERE THE
   AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED.  GIVEN LOCATION OF CENTER
   OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION /NERN KS AND NWRN
   MO/...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AROUND 30 KT.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST MULTICELLS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM
   MODE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/11/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   38819505 39329463 39639433 39899377 40089308 40039213
               38909242 38769288 38739427 38819505