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Mesoscale Discussion 1040
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle and South
   Plains...western OK...far south-central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151903Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in the
   potential for severe thunderstorms, including the risk for
   significant severe hail. The issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus development continues along a
   northeast-southwest-oriented dryline across the TX Panhandle. The
   dryline arches southward near the NM/West TX border, and additional
   high-based cumulus fields are becoming evident over western sections
   of the TX South Plains. Despite an overall dearth of deep ascent,
   baroclinic circulations along the dryline are being amplified by
   intense surface heating, with temperatures near 100F in some
   locations on the immediate dry side of the dryline. Convection will
   likely deepen, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
   developing in the next couple of hours.

   Long, straight mid/high-level hodographs associated with 25-40 kt of
   effective shear will foster splitting supercells. Large normalized
   CAPE in the hail-growth zone aloft associated with very steep
   midlevel lapse rates, along with MLCAPE around 2000-3500 J/kg,
   suggest intense updrafts should evolve with severe hail -- and
   baseball-size hail will be possible. Storms will develop into far
   south-central KS and into western OK with time into the evening
   hours. Large DCAPE amid the well-mixed boundary layer will support a
   risk for severe wind gusts -- locally bolstered when congealing cold
   pools facilitate convective clustering.

   Given the lack of stronger deep ascent, there is some uncertainty
   regarding the timing of more substantial increase in severe risk.
   Moreover, anticipated severe coverage is somewhat unclear,
   especially given only weakly convergent low-level flow. However,
   appreciable conditional severe risk is in place for this afternoon
   into the evening.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33260248 34060259 35890068 37349942 37049878 35419901
               33740006 33130154 33260248 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2017
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