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Mesoscale Discussion 1040
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171858Z - 172030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE RISK -- MAY
   DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WW
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CU
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SRN
   LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA INTO NRN IL.  THE MOIST AIRMASS
   NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH
   2500 TO 3000 J/KG NOW INDICATED PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

   WITH FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WHILE VEERING
   GRADUALLY FROM SWWD TO WWD/WNWWD THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 KM...SHEAR
   WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS/EWD-MOVING STORMS.  WHILE INITIAL STORM
   MOTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD YIELD SOME CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE
   -- NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE RISK...DEGREE OF CAPE SUGGEST THAT
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS IS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY.  WE WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
   SIGNS THAT WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41668533 41558493 41108504 40918626 40648780 40718986
               41209066 41709041 41848931 41568721 41668533 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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