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Mesoscale Discussion 1041
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND EAST TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 302...

   VALID 170350Z - 170515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 302 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ECNTRL TX IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
   THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT INTENSIFY AROUND TROPICAL STORM
   BILL'S CENTER. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   ECNTRL TX PRIOR TO THE EXPIRATION OF WW 302.

   DISCUSSION...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL
   HURRICANE CENTER...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL IS ABOUT 50
   MILES NORTH OF VICTORIA TX. AN AREA OF RAIN IS PRESENT FROM THE
   CENTER OF BILL NWD TO ABOUT 130 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
   OF THE CENTER. THE RAINBAND WRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF BILL WITH
   A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
   ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DERIVED PW DATA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS ECNTRL TX WHERE VALUES PEAK IN THE
   2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
   HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF BILL'S
   CENTER. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM HAS STRENGTHENED LATE THIS
   EVENING. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE HOUSTON WSR-88D VWP WHICH SHOWS
   0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF
   400-450 M2/S2. DUE TO THIS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE
   WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
   BILL. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
   STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   28109612 28459646 28479661 28759671 29059693 28889731
               28909754 28839760 28999775 29079763 29399789 29639766
               30079833 30409810 30499836 30909843 31179852 31699769
               31589757 31869703 31709691 31809674 32079686 32339641
               32349543 31919546 31729528 31539510 31309492 31119485
               31029451 31129404 31179383 31179355 30889354 30679369
               30349375 30079372 29949379 29829378 29779388 29699384
               29769348 29759334 29439336 29409356 29339376 29339398
               29029455 28769496 28589516 28419556 28109612 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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