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Mesoscale Discussion 1041
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest TX and extreme southeast NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151940Z - 152215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some increase in the
   severe-thunderstorm risk this afternoon, which could persist into
   the evening. While Watch issuance is not presently likely,
   convective and environmental trends will be monitored for possible
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus fields are becoming increasingly defined over
   the higher terrain from southwest TX into southeast NM -- in
   proximity to a north-south-oriented dryline. Continued
   terrain-driven circulations, and baroclinic circulations attendant
   to the dryline, should foster increasing convective coverage and
   intensity during the next few hours. The air mass is increasingly
   unstable with eastward extent from the dryline, as the relatively
   moist boundary layer has become hot/well mixed with dewpoints
   holding in the 50s and 60s. With midlevel lapse rates around 8.5-9.5
   C/km, MLCAPE around 2500-4000 J/kg will support updraft
   intensification as convection spreads across the area into the
   evening hours. The presence of 25-40 kt of effective shear could
   support supercell structures with large hail, and large DCAPE would
   support some potential for severe wind gusts. Given the lack of any
   substantive deep ascent, and given comparatively even weaker surface
   convergence compared to locations farther north, severe coverage may
   be limited. However, given the appreciable conditional severe risk,
   some potential for Watch issuance exists -- especially if the risk
   for greater severe coverage were to become apparent.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29890248 30050314 31250363 32540307 32830165 32410076
               30760134 29890248 

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