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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 110755Z - 110900Z
A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN TX.
NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL ASCENT LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER INTENSE MCS AND BOW ECHO
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE DFW AREA AND ESEWD TO PARTS OF NERN TX. WHILE
THE EARLIER SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL EAST...WIND PROFILER DATA
INDICATED STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS CONTINUING ATOP
RESIDUAL MCS COLD POOL. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FUEL INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITHIN A RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE DFW METROPLEX ESEWD NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAK
ELY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW...TOPPED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG WLY
FLOW TO ABOUT 40KT BETWEEN 3-5KM WAS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS.
WHILE LARGE-SCALE REGIME APPEARS TO SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING...FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL TO PERSIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
..CARBIN.. 06/11/2009
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33179793 33099724 32879631 32339474 31709460 31979636
32889830 33179793
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