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Mesoscale Discussion 1042
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...EXTREME SWRN MN AND NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 172212Z - 180015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER NERN
   NEB...SERN SD OR NWRN IA BY 00Z. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS, BUT THE THREAT FOR
   MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
   NRN NEB INTO SERN SD THEN SEWD THROUGH NRN IA. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   WITH VERY STEEP /8.5-9 C/KM/ 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED
   ABOVE THE AXIS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE THAT EXISTS IN VICINITY OF AND
   SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM
   NERN NEB INTO SERN SD AND EXTREME NWRN IA...WHILE WV IMAGERY SHOWS
   WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
   PLAINS. DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL AUGMENT MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
   FRONT...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EARLY THIS
   EVENING. WINDS ARE ESELY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND UP TO 40 KT DEEP SHEAR. UPDRAFTS INITIATING
   WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD WHERE THEY
   WILL INTERACT WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...AUGMENTING THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND
   TORNADOES.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42609624 42559774 42449920 43349919 43939751 43609553
               42989468 42539521 42609624 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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