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Mesoscale Discussion 1043
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332...

   Valid 152029Z - 152230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332 remains in effect.

   DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development has been underway in
   Ellis and Trego Counties -- along a west-east boundary. A
   supercell-cluster mode has typified this activity, and continued
   upshear development and expanding/amalgamating, convectively
   generated cold pools may breed upscale growth of this activity
   during the next couple of hours. The Hays KS AWOS has already
   measured a 53-kt gust.

   As such, a bowing MCS could materialize across parts of central KS
   during the next couple of hours as this activity spreads downshear.
   The MCS would spread east-southeastward and southeastward into the
   evening -- aided by preferential cell development on the southern
   and eastern flanks of the growing cold pool where strongly buoyant
   inflow exists. The special 18Z sounding from Topeka KS indicates
   around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and even more substantial MLCAPE exists
   with southward extent from the boundary where dewpoints have not
   mixed out as much. The 17Z Lamont OK sounding indicates around 50 kt
   of effective shear, suggesting increasing potential in
   forward-propagating MCS formation. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph winds are
   expected -- enhanced in conjunction with line-embedded mesovortices.
   If confidence in a more precise corridor of damaging/destructive
   winds were to become apparent, it is possible that some
   consideration could be given to the issuance of a Particularly
   Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   More isolated convection backbuilding along the boundary in western
   KS may also pose severe potential into parts of southwest KS during
   the next few hours. Furthermore, splitting supercells south of the
   area -- across parts of Watch 333 -- may eventually develop into
   parts of far south-central KS later this afternoon, with severe
   hail/wind potential.

   ..Cohen.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37669540 37109619 37059939 37720080 38670089 39569978
               39909762 39759604 38859529 37669540 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2017
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