|Mesoscale Discussion 1043|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Areas affected...Much of Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332...
Valid 152029Z - 152230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332
SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332 remains in effect.
DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development has been underway in
Ellis and Trego Counties -- along a west-east boundary. A
supercell-cluster mode has typified this activity, and continued
upshear development and expanding/amalgamating, convectively
generated cold pools may breed upscale growth of this activity
during the next couple of hours. The Hays KS AWOS has already
measured a 53-kt gust.
As such, a bowing MCS could materialize across parts of central KS
during the next couple of hours as this activity spreads downshear.
The MCS would spread east-southeastward and southeastward into the
evening -- aided by preferential cell development on the southern
and eastern flanks of the growing cold pool where strongly buoyant
inflow exists. The special 18Z sounding from Topeka KS indicates
around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and even more substantial MLCAPE exists
with southward extent from the boundary where dewpoints have not
mixed out as much. The 17Z Lamont OK sounding indicates around 50 kt
of effective shear, suggesting increasing potential in
forward-propagating MCS formation. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph winds are
expected -- enhanced in conjunction with line-embedded mesovortices.
If confidence in a more precise corridor of damaging/destructive
winds were to become apparent, it is possible that some
consideration could be given to the issuance of a Particularly
Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
More isolated convection backbuilding along the boundary in western
KS may also pose severe potential into parts of southwest KS during
the next few hours. Furthermore, splitting supercells south of the
area -- across parts of Watch 333 -- may eventually develop into
parts of far south-central KS later this afternoon, with severe
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37669540 37109619 37059939 37720080 38670089 39569978
39909762 39759604 38859529 37669540
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