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Mesoscale Discussion 1043
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY THROUGH NWRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 

   VALID 172226Z - 172330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH WRN NY AND
   EVENTUALLY NWRN PA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS...BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN CANADA IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A COLD FRONT AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
   THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NERN U.S.
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS
   ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE WARM
   SECTOR WITH UP TO 45 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.
   HOWEVER...LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME THE
   DOMINANT MODE...BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43367661 43797600 43307502 42347604 41917801 41727910
               41458051 41878065 42737901 43367661 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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