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Mesoscale Discussion 1043
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN IL...SRN INDIANA...NRN/WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170538Z - 170745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS CROSSING PARTS OF THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL EXIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW
   ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVED
   FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. WEAK TROUGH-PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
   THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE
   NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AS GPS DATA INDICATE
   A CORRIDOR OF PW FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES NEAR AND S OF A SFC FRONT
   ANALYZED FROM E-CNTRL IA TO SRN OH. THE VWX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 25-30
   KT OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS SURMOUNTING SLY/SSELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM
   AGL...SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION...AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   70S/ SUPPORTS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR TSTMS. LOCALIZED
   MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS/LEWP INFLECTIONS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG TSTM
   WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
   OUT...AIDED BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL
   STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DAMPEN THE PROPENSITY OF
   DOWNDRAFTS TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...MARKEDLY MARGINALIZING THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS. ALSO...POOR
   LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST DEEP SHEAR WILL GREATLY NEGATE THE
   SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37718853 38218776 38518692 38478615 37768600 37228718
               37278854 37718853 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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