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Mesoscale Discussion 1044
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 306...

   VALID 170801Z - 171000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 306 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS
   TORNADO WATCH 306.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
   THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS PARTS
   OF E-CNTRL TX. ASYMMETRIES IN ITS LARGER-SCALE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
   HAVE BECOME EVIDENT...AS A FEEDER BAND IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN
   THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.D. BILL...EXTENDING FROM N OF COLLEGE
   STATION SWD TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD...WHILE AMPLE CONVECTION EXTENDS OFFSHORE IN
   THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT /E.G. PW AROUND 2.00-2.25 INCHES PER GPS
   DATA/ SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE TRAINING.

   OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS BEING INDICATED WITHIN THIS FEEDER BAND -- A
   MANIFESTATION OF MODEST BUOYANCY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS
   /MIDDLE 70S/ AND HIGH THETA-E IN THE SERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.D. BILL.
   THE HGX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-2-KM-AGL
   LAYER...FACILITATING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BAND-EMBEDDED ROTATING
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. SUCH POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED INVOF A WEAK
   BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER TX COASTAL
   PLAIN TOWARD COLLEGE STATION -- NEAR/N OF WHICH THE BACKED/ELY SFC
   WIND COMPONENT IS LOCALLY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SRH.

   FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING T.D. BILL...PLEASE REFERENCE
   ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

   ..COHEN.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28619669 31259680 31259528 28629519 28619669 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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