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Mesoscale Discussion 1044
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD / N-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...313...

   VALID 172302Z - 180030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 311...313...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INCREASING PROBABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS.  THE SUPERCELL TORNADO
   THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
   THE GREATER BLACK HILLS VICINITY TO THE E OF A DRYLINE.  THE DRYLINE
   WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS AN AREA FOR PREFERRED STORM INITIATION OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  MODIFYING THE 18Z RAP RAOB SHOWS EXTREME VALUES
   OF MLCAPE /3500-4500 J PER KG/ OVER WRN SD AND INTO N-CNTRL NEB. 
   RELATIVELY COOL H5 TEMPS -13 PER THE RAP RAOB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   VERY LARGE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATE PROFILE.  ELY WINDS STRONGLY VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
   STRONG/INCREASING FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORING A DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE. 
   GIVEN THE EXTREME CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR...EXPECTING VERY LARGE /I.E.
   2-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ TO ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. 
   THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH ANY SUPERCELL DURING THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFICATION IN H85 FLOW.

   ..SMITH.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42330183 43840359 45050398 45560380 45700340 45510292
               42970100 42750093 42440132 42330183 

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