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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...
VALID 111239Z - 111345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372
CONTINUES.
GIVEN A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DAL/FWD
METROPLEX AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WWD ALONG A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THROCKMORTON...WFO FWD WILL BE EXTENDING WW 372 BOTH
TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL EWD TRAINING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.
DESPITE LACK OF ANY MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS N TX WITH THIS ONGOING
ACTIVITY...A 30-35 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/MODERATE
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THAT TIME. UNTIL THEN...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..PETERS.. 06/11/2009
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33019943 33419946 33419829 33429694 33309629 32879574
32449543 31939534 31689547 31849624 32299789 32539877
33019943
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