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Mesoscale Discussion 1044
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1044
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Alabama and western/central
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152124Z - 152230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of strong/severe storms will continue southeast
   through this evening. Pockets of damaging winds will continue to be
   the main threat.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar data are showing a line of storms
   pushing southeast across eastern Alabama and northern Georgia early
   this evening. Ahead of this line, a hot/moist boundary layer and
   relatively uncapped environment are supporting continued storm
   propagation as outflow surges southeast. The 12Z FFC sounding,
   modified for current surface conditions, suggests steep low-level
   lapse rates resulting in DCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg. In turn,
   strong downdraft momentum will maintain a threat of gusty, damaging
   winds. Furthermore, southeastward acceleration and weak anvil-layer
   flow have resulted in the organization of a trailing stratiform
   precipitation shield, likely further enhancing the wind threat. As
   such, watch issuance may be necessary early this evening.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32478699 33708579 34378472 33758345 32578358 31908415
               31858594 32208681 32478699 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2017
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