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Mesoscale Discussion 1045
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...

   VALID 180033Z - 180100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 311 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG
   TORNADO...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL...WILL
   PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...THE 17/00Z RAP RAOB SHOWED EXTREME BUOYANCY /4100 J PER
   KG MLCAPE/ AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY A 14-15
   LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO.  A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILL
   CONTINUE TO LEND A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY LARGE TO GIANT
   HAIL /I.E. 2-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  INPUTTING THE OBSERVED STORM MOTION OF THE BUTTE
   COUNTY SUPERCELL INTO THE KUDX VWP YIELDS AROUND 300 M2/S2 0-3 KM
   SRH AND THIS MAY SIGNAL THAT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TORNADO
   MAY MAXIMIZE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  IN ADDITION TO THE
   HAIL/TORNADO THREAT...A SEVERE WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF
   ANY SUPERCELL.  K2WX OBSERVED A MEASURED 61 KT GUST AROUND 0008Z IN
   HARDING COUNTY WITH THE NRN OF THE 2 DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

   ..SMITH.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44570405 45130417 45870340 45840293 45560256 44630324
               44570405 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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