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Mesoscale Discussion 1045
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the mid Missouri Valley to eastern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152211Z - 152315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop through the evening
   hours, with an attendant potential for large hail and damaging
   winds. Observational trends are being monitored for possible watch

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite late this afternoon depicts pockets
   of agitated/towering cumulus across the mid Missouri Valley and
   vicinity this evening. Also noted in satellite imagery,
   mid/upper-level cloud cover continues to overspread these cumulus
   fields, suggesting a speed maximum may be providing weak large-scale
   ascent. Despite fairly weak low-level convergence along a front
   extending northeast, the influence of this system may be sufficient
   for isolated convective initiation over the next several hours.
   Moreover, guidance suggests development may be bolstered along the
   northern fringe of an anvil spreading north from a convective system
   over Kansas. An array of mesoscale/microphysical processes (e.g.,
   differential heating, anvil seeding, gravity waves) may be the cause
   of such bolstered development; regardless, visible satellite appears
   to confirm the notion of enhanced development along the leading edge
   of the anvil. Steep mid-level lapse rates (and related strong
   buoyancy), as well as adequate westerly mid/upper flow, may be
   sufficient for a few organized/rotating updrafts, capable of large
   hail and damaging winds. Therefore, trends are being monitored for
   possible watch issuance over the next few hours.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41409279 40829457 39999684 40029864 40399911 40649878
               41549684 42839455 43069352 43089241 42999189 42559163
               42169165 41789205 41409279 

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