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Mesoscale Discussion 1046
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171247Z - 171515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME
   POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY A
   DMGG TSTM WIND GUST. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
   POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL VWPS AND 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE A 30-40-KT LLJ
   AROUND 1 KM AGL WITHIN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANTS OF
   TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL ACROSS ERN TX. AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NWD WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN SRN-CONUS
   MID-LEVEL RIDGING...HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CHARACTERIZED
   BY MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS ERN
   TX. THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND RELATED BUOYANCY EXISTS S OF A
   NWD-MOVING...WEAK WARM FRONT ARCING EWD/SEWD ACROSS E-CNTRL TX INTO
   SWRN LA.

   BANDED CONVECTION ALIGNING WITH N/S-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXES NEAR/S
   OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILE OFFERING CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS...RADAR DATA HAVE INDICATED VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUCH
   ACTIVITY THUS FAR. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE LACK OF A
   SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION -- THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY AND LIMITING STORM-SCALE PROCESSES THAT WOULD OTHERWISE
   ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGES INDICATE ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN THE ZONE OF
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND THETA-E DEFICITS ARE BEING MAINTAINED
   BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THESE FACTORS
   CAST SUBSTANTIAL DOUBT ON THE PROPENSITY FOR STRONG DIURNAL GAINS IN
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN THE SHORT-TERM AND THE RELATED SVR RISK...SUCH
   THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

   REGARDLESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO
   THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE RELATIVELY BACKED/ELY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW
   NEAR THE SFC ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SRH. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS IN
   NERN TX. ALSO...A DMGG TSTM WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
   PERSISTENT/DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND 
   VICINITY -- AIDED BY WATER LOADING. LATER TODAY...AFTER THE
   POSSIBILITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR MODEST INSOLATION BETWEEN RAIN
   BANDS TO YIELD STRONGER BUOYANCY...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SVR RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE
   OVERALL RISK IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE SHORT-TERM.

   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28899646 29799697 32329719 33299644 33339521 32819432
               31449410 29909419 28969552 28899646 

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