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Mesoscale Discussion 1046
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN IA...SRN MN THROUGH WCNTRL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180044Z - 180245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN MN INTO WRN WI AND POSE A
   THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF
   DEEPENING CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE THE SFC LAYER FROM NRN IA INTO
   SERN MN AND WCNTRL WI TO THE NORTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT.
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ. EVENING RAOB
   FROM MINNEAPOLIS STILL SHOWED A WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 650
   MB...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING A NEWD
   EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT MAY FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION...RESULTING IN
   DEEP CONVECTION. MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED...BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY
   AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS
   DEVELOPING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY OVER NRN IA MAY
   BECOME ROOTED IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...AND THESE STORMS COULD POSE A
   THREAT FOR A TORNADO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44399453 44919224 44569050 43609003 43079082 43369274
               43499434 44399453 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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