Mesoscale Discussion 1047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Areas affected...Portions of Kansas and far northern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332...
Valid 152258Z - 160000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332
SUMMARY...Congealing severe thunderstorms will accelerate
east/southeast across Kansas this evening, with a continued threat
of damaging wind gusts, a few of which could be significant.
DISCUSSION...Several clusters of severe thunderstorms, with a few
embedded mesoscale vortices, are evolving generally southeastward
this evening. The overall evolution appears to suggest upscale
growth into a bowing complex stretching from Clay County southward
to Marion County as of 2250Z. Additionally, low-level
confluence/warm advection is enhancing storm propagation to the west
towards Rice County (noted in the recent appearance of several ZDR
columns and expansion of low-level hydrometeor size sorting
signatures). Reflectivity, velocity, and dual-pol data also suggest
a surge or rear-inflow drying/winds pushing across Rice County. With
storm-relative inflow bolstered by south/southeasterly winds of
15-20 kt and strong instability ahead of the organizing complex,
storms will likely continue to accelerate east/southeastward, with
the potential for one or more swaths of damaging winds across
southern/eastern Kansas. Indeed, a few significant severe gusts
remain possible. As such, an extension and/or replacement of Watch
332 will likely be coordinated within the hour.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38590056 38719866 38909762 39469720 39479525 39179418
38199398 37019413 36909612 36799837 37109950 38040015