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Mesoscale Discussion 1047
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...SRN WV...FAR ERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171640Z - 171845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS EVOLVING E/SE FROM SRN WV/FAR ERN KY.

   DISCUSSION...TRAILING FLANK OF A DECAYING TSTM CLUSTER AROUND 25 E
   OF KCRW HAS HAD SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WITH WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION. KRLX
   VWP DATA SAMPLED A DEEP WLY WIND PROFILE WITH 35-40 KT SPEEDS FROM
   3-6 KM AGL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING E
   WITHIN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME N OF A STOUT ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE S
   ATLANTIC COAST. 12Z RNK/BNA RAOBS SAMPLED FAIR 700-500 MB LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL INTO AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
   THROUGH THE 80S. CONSOLIDATING CELLS MIGHT EVENTUALLY YIELD A SMALL
   CLUSTER FAVORABLY TIMED FOR MAX HEATING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
   CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGE.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   38278096 38057966 37767878 37277859 36687923 36608001
               36688122 37048218 37458249 37638224 38278096 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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