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Mesoscale Discussion 1048
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0829 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315...

   VALID 180129Z - 180200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 315 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES LIKELY
   INDICATIVE OF A VIOLENT TORNADO.  THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSE TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR MORE.

   DISCUSSION...KOAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PEAK 0.5 DEG ROTATIONAL
   VELOCITIES 90+ KT SUPPORTING A HIGH PROBABILITY /60 PERCENT OR
   GREATER/ FOR A VIOLENT TORNADO BASED ON RADAR ALONE.  THE 00Z OMA
   RAOB SHOWED A AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   BEGINNING TO INCREASE PER KOAX VWP DATA.  INPUTTING THE CEDAR COUNTY
   TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOTION YIELDS OVER 300 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH. 
   EXPECTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR INTENSE TORNADOES /EF3+/ FOR THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..SMITH.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42669738 42659698 42409695 42339732 42379747 42669738 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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