Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1048
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1048 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171708Z - 171915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BAND FROM THE ARKLATEX AREA MAY
   GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MARGINAL SEVERE INTENSITY INTO MID-AFTERNOON.
   A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING TRENDS HAS OCCURRED WITH
   THE NRN EXTENT OF A NWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NERN TX. THIS
   REGION IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELATIVE TO FARTHER
   S OVER THE SABINE VALLEY /PER AREA VWP DATA/. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S AHEAD OF THIS BAND FROM SERN OK INTO
   AR/LA. ALTHOUGH CAMS SUGGEST UH WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...IT APPEARS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF DIABATIC HEATING A BRIEF/WEAK
   TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR AMIDST 0-1 KM SHEAR
   AROUND 30 KT.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   33959534 34149547 34549556 34859543 35089511 35169471
               35129437 34949405 34739382 34399354 33619342 33119343
               32779358 32619380 32579417 32709432 33189467 33829516
               33959534 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 17, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities