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Mesoscale Discussion 1048
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...portions of the upper peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152306Z - 160000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat will exist with activity entering
   the northern Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  A WW issuance is not
   anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms, initially located
   over southern Lake Superior, has organized and began to propagate
   southeastward into eastern portions of the Upper Peninsula of
   Michigan over the past hour or so.  These storms are elevated, but a
   pocket of weak to moderate instability upstream of this activity
   (likely rooted above around 900 mb) is likely supporting the
   continued hail threat as these storms continue to propagate away
   from the lake.  This threat should be too isolated for a WW
   issuance, although a few instances of large hail remain possible
   over the next 1-2 hours or so.

   ..Cook.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46798601 46738528 46558435 46168399 45988404 45858461
               45898535 45928618 45808672 45808710 45918745 46178751
               46458704 46798601 

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