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Mesoscale Discussion 1049
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0938 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180238Z - 180415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STORMS AND ISOLD SEVERE IS INCREASING THIS
   EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0235Z SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS EXTENDING IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION FROM FAR ERN IA AND
   ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.  THE UPDRAFTS TO THE W OF LAKE MICH MAY BE
   ORIGINATING IN A LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE DVN RAOB SHOWED
   A WARM NOSE AT H75 AND IT MAY AT LEAST TEMPORALLY IF NOT LARGELY
   INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  NONETHELESS...A WARM
   FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
   OVER THE REGION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.  MODERATE WLY FLOW ATOP SLY
   SURFACE WINDS IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...MAINLY
   IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. 
   THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE ERN IA/NRN
   IL VICINITY AND FAVOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
   HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN MATURE/STRENGTHEN
   WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43198854 42828745 41818726 41558799 41809080 42249084
               42719078 43129024 43198854 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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