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Mesoscale Discussion 1049
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND NRN/CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171828Z - 172030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL REPORT MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN UPTICK
   IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER
   FAR SRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
   ASSISTANCE FROM AN IMPULSE ALOFT OVER ERN ND SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS IS WELL
   SUPPORTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE.

   WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY MEAGER...500-MB FLOW AROUND 45-50 KTS
   /EVIDENT IN KMPX VWP DATA/ SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   UPWARDS OF 35-40 KTS. BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
   C/KM...SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
   LOWER/MID 60S ARE PROMOTING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN
   TURN...A FEW VIGOROUS/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST/LARGE HAIL
   REPORT. MOREOVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS COULD BE ENHANCED
   BY ANY BOWING SEGMENTS/MERGING COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
   MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...AND
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/KERR.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44219419 44759393 44889354 44919283 44869235 44509205
               43669214 43239225 42609239 42049261 41899315 41849390
               41929451 42069479 42349470 43289438 44109418 44219419 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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