|Mesoscale Discussion 1049|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Areas affected...parts of southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...
Valid 160105Z - 160200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 335.
DISCUSSION...Mature storms continue to migrate/propagate
southeastward across portions of west-central Texas currently, with
one supercellular structure noted across Howard County and a linear
segment across Scurry/Fisher counties. With modest low-level and
strong (2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) just ahead of these storms, a
continued threat for hail (perhaps significant near storms that can
exhibit updraft rotation) and severe wind gusts will continue beyond
dusk. This may necessitate eastward spatial extensions of WW 335
into portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley.
Farther southwest, higher-based activity has developed in higher
terrain of Texas and also near/just west of Midland/Odessa.
Although it is a bit late in the diurnal cycle for this activity
(and earlier activity has struggled to maintain intensity), some
potential for severe downburst winds exists given steep lapse rates
throughout the troposphere and 40-50 F surface dewpoint depressions.
A few hail stones approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out.
It is a bit uncertain whether this newer activity will persist,
however, and the overall severe threat may begin to trend downward
after dusk owing to nocturnal boundary layer cooling/stabilization.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31790393 32580305 33020181 33310014 33329971 32929937
32369924 31339936 30680003 30420162 30270251 30340320
30690388 31200405 31790393
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