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Mesoscale Discussion 1050
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171920Z - 172115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY/CUMBERLAND
   PLATEAU. UNLESS UPSCALE GROWTH BECOMES APPARENT...A SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION
   OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM SE MO TO ERN KY WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
   MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
   WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ON
   THE SRN FRINGE OF A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS OVER THE
   MIDWEST. WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...0-6
   KM SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT PER AREA VWP DATA. THIS SUGGESTS
   CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...BUT A COUPLE OF MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38039001 38488862 38938646 39168441 39198332 38908233
               38208199 37828212 37468234 37288280 37328365 37518624
               37498780 37388944 37649018 38039001 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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