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Mesoscale Discussion 1050
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND PART OF EASTERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...297...

   VALID 250504Z - 250700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   296...297...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A
   FAST-MOVING LINEAR MCS...AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ND
   /NORTHERN PART OF WW 207/ DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
   MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PART OF EAST-CENTRAL MT INTO SOUTHWEST ND.  IF ANY OF THESE
   LATTER STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER BEYOND 06Z
   IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF WW 296...THEN LOCAL WFO TEMPORAL EXTENSION
   WOULD BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM OF A
   FAST-MOVING LINEAR MCS...NOW ENTERING NORTH-CENTRAL ND.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH CONTINUED PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW IN
   NORTHWEST ND AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AS THE BOW ADVANCES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT CLOSE
   TO 50 KT.  MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WW 296 IN NORTHWEST ND
   COULD BE REMOVED EARLY THIS WATCH.  OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWEST ND WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY TENDING TO HAVE A LOWER SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF WEAK INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHWEST ND.  HOWEVER...AS THESE STORMS
   MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF WW 297...ENCOUNTERING GREATER
   INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SOME INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..PETERS.. 06/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46550570 46660531 46730411 47450400 47670242 48170218
               48590210 49020265 48989718 47249677 47259860 46649843
               46580061 46070143 46000190 45890204 45870382 46020456
               46040482 45830495 45790546 45940574 46550570 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2016
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