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Mesoscale Discussion 1051
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI / SWRN UPPER MICH / S-CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180336Z - 180500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER NRN WI AND
   THE PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL PER
   WDSS-II MESH IMAGERY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND INTENSIFYING
   CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT FARTHER WEST IN S-CNTRL MN AS ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT LIFTS PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.  THE WIND PROFILE IS
   SUPERCELL-SUPPORTIVE AND THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY ACQUIRE
   STORM-SCALE ROTATION.  STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY /2500 J PER KG
   MUCAPE/ ACCORDING TO THE 00Z MPX RAOB WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY ADVANCES NWD
   TONIGHT.  THEREFORE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
   HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS TO DEVELOP.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44988820 44699115 43849362 43719436 44179507 45079479
               45869256 46169096 46238912 46158813 45708752 44988820 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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