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Mesoscale Discussion 1052
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX / EXTREME SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172214Z - 180015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A STORM OR TWO TO
   INTENSIFY AND PERHAPS ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE ROTATION AS
   STORMS MOVE INTO A THETA-E AXIS OVER NERN TX.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CENTER
   OF THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL 15 MI NNE FTW WITH A CONFLUENCE LINE/BAND
   OF STORMS ALIGNED FROM 45 MI E OF DAL TO 10 NNE CRS TO 10 MI S ACT. 
   SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING FROM
   CNTRL TX NEWD INTO NERN TX AND A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
   TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO NERN TX.  DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOME CLOUD
   BREAKS HAVE PERMITTED SOME DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
   OVER NERN TX AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY BUOYANT/VERY
   MOIST AIRMASS.  THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORING THE NERN
   QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT.
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER UPDRAFTS CAN STRENGTHEN
   ENOUGH TO ACQUIRE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. 
   NONETHELESS...SHORT-TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR
   STORM INTENSIFICATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TORNADO WATCH
   OVER NERN TX/EXTREME SERN OK.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32619511 32389564 32449609 33289612 33859586 33999533
               33859478 32619511 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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