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Mesoscale Discussion 1052
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / FAR NWRN IA / FAR NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315...

   VALID 180401Z - 180430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 315 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUPPORTING
   EVIDENCE FOR PRODUCING STRONG TO PERHAPS VIOLENT STRENGTH TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...KFSD AND KOAX RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES
   HAVE SHOWN 0.5 DEG TILT PEAK ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES OF 55-95 KT.  THE
   MINNEHAHA COUNTY STORM HAS OR IS LIKELY PRODUCING A VIOLENT TORNADO
   /60 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITY/ AS OF 0355Z BASED ON ROTATIONAL
   VELOCITY ALONE.  INPUTTING THE OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS FOR THE
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS YIELDS AROUND 300 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH.  THE
   NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER-MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND
   VERY LARGE CAPE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT
   TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES IF NOT LONGER.

   ..SMITH.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42329710 43679779 43869728 43679671 43409631 43249611
               42759618 42329654 42329710 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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