Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1052
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1052 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251750Z - 251945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z AND
   TRACK E/NE ACROSS MN INTO NRN WI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED
   TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED ACROSS
   NORTHEAST MN WHERE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAVE RESULTED
   IN SLOWER WARMING AND TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 1730Z.
   REGARDLESS...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WAS NOTED IN 17Z
   MESOANALYSIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
   WAS DRAPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN TO NEAR FSD IN SD AND ODX IN
   NEB...WHILE THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   NE MN INTO NORTHERN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS A FORCING FOR ASCENT
   INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ENVIRONMENT
   QUICKLY BECOMES UNCAPPED.

   AREA VWP/S SHOW MODEST VERTICALLY VEERED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS
   SRN/CNTRL MN WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL CURVATURE NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE SELY.  SUPERCELLS
   WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS
   INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
   STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE SYNOPTIC COLD
   FRONT LEADING TO FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINEAR BOWING
   SEGMENTS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE
   POSSIBLE AFTER UPSCALE GROWTH COMMENCES...DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED
   TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44349233 43679292 43279356 43149391 43159456 43229509
               43369561 43629582 43949580 44989546 46089517 46659498
               47689482 48179458 48719425 48909335 48779180 48319056
               47919024 47369017 45679125 44349233 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 25, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities