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Mesoscale Discussion 1053
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas and southern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161727Z - 162000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong-thunderstorm potential will develop during the next
   couple of hours and continue into the early evening. Isolated
   damaging wind gusts could occur, though lacking convective
   organization with anticipated limited severe coverage should
   preclude Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Amid a broad area of surface heating and PW values of
   1.6-2.0 inches with minimal capping, an increase in the number and
   intensity of thunderstorms will occur through the afternoon. Forcing
   for ascent will emanate from diurnally enhanced orographic
   circulations over the Appalachians, weak ascent peripheral to a
   couple of weak midlevel cyclonic perturbations crossing the area
   (one along the SC coast and one crossing the northeast Gulf),
   sea-breeze boundaries over the coastal plain, and deepening
   boundary-layer circulations across the region.

   With 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE in place, a few robust convective
   cores may evolve, with the substantive deep moisture bolstering
   precipitation-loading processes and the potential for strong
   downdrafts. Localized instance of loosely organized multicell
   convective clusters could occur where cold pools amalgamate, given a
   slight enhancement to the flow aloft (15 kt at 500 mb) peripheral to
   the cyclonic perturbations. The most intense convection may produce
   isolated damaging wind gusts as it spreads across the region into
   the early evening hours -- before nocturnal gains in boundary-layer
   static stability occur. However, convection should mostly be lacking
   organized character, and midlevel lapse rates are quite modest. As
   such, a more substantial severe risk is not presently anticipated.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   32928112 34838284 36268161 36937935 36937713 36137579
               35007643 33317933 32928112 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2017
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