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Mesoscale Discussion 1053
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHEAST WY...NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172220Z - 172315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   NERN CO/SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND
   COULD POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CB DEVELOPMENT HAS
   INCREASED RAPIDLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HRS ALONG/E OF THE FRONT
   RANGE OF N-CNTRL CO AND SERN WY. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
   ADVECTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
   UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED AMIDST STRONG HEATING
   YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR/MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS DISPLACED NWD FROM DEVELOPING
   CONVECTION...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 25-30 KT OVER
   NERN CO INCREASING TO 30-45 KT OVER SERN WY IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
   MULTICELL TO MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORM MODES. 

   WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
   WILL ACCOMPANY ANY LONGER-LIVED STORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
   LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. A GREATER TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   LIMITED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A
   BRIEF TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN OBSERVED SELY SFC WINDS AND
   MODEST TURNING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40100398 40290533 41570533 42320557 42900472 42970364
               42910291 41730233 40190273 40100398 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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