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Mesoscale Discussion 1054
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1054
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast MO...southern IL...western
   KY...western TN...northeast AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161745Z - 162015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...There will exist the potential for isolated severe
   thunderstorms through the afternoon across parts of the lower Ohio
   Valley region and Mid-South. While environmental and convective
   trends will continue to be monitored, the issuance of a Watch is
   presently unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Ascent across the northeastern quadrant of an MCV
   crossing eastern AR, and along the edges of MCV-related multi-
   layered cloud canopies where differential-heating-induced
   baroclinicity is being diurnally enhanced, will continue to foster
   an increase in convective coverage across the area. Inflow buoyancy
   for this activity is strong (e.g., 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE), owing
   to strong surface heating amid dewpoints in the lower/middle 70s.
   This will likely support robust updrafts capable of isolated severe
   hail/wind, with local convective clustering / cold-pool amalgamation
   focusing damaging-wind potential.

   Eastward propagation of this activity will be favored by
   preferential development of regenerative convection into the higher
   theta-e air east of the ongoing convection. However, deep shear is
   quite weak across the region, with effective shear magnitudes
   generally below 25 kt. This should tend to limit the severe
   coverage. Furthermore, as storms approach a minimum in deep moisture
   with additional eastward extent across the lower Ohio Valley, they
   may tend to weaken owing to dry-air entrainment and eventual
   ingestion of weaker buoyancy as boundary-layer moisture mixes out.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36038863 35698926 35858991 36779007 37869063 38388990
               37848874 36038863 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2017
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