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Mesoscale Discussion 1054
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307...308...

   VALID 180044Z - 180145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   307...308...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A HAIL AND SVR WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
   ISOLATED ORGANIZED TSTMS WITHIN WATCHES 307 AND 308. AN ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST S OF THESE WATCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEB
   PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SVR STORMS STRETCHING FROM
   SERN MT SWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z REGIONAL
   SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE COUPLED
   WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS...YIELDING AN AXIS OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
   ACROSS ERN WY NOSING INTO SERN MT. DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT...ISOLATED SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE
   NEXT FEW HRS AS A MODEST INCREASE IN THE LLJ /TO 15-20 KT/ OCCURS
   ACROSS WRN NEB/SD...AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE LATE EVENING.
   UPSCALE GROWTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN MT INTO NWRN SD AS
   INTERACTIONS WITH NEIGHBORING CELLS OCCUR AND TSTMS TRACK SWD ALONG
   THE INSTABILITY AXIS...IN WHICH CASE A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT
   COULD EVOLVE. 

   MEANWHILE...A TSTM CLUSTER ORIGINATING FROM A LEFT SPLIT OUT OF SERN
   WY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...WITH
   REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL RECEIVED WITHIN THE PAST HR. AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. SVR THREAT
   ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HRS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44120138 42220191 41720369 42820445 44480532 45390623
               45810743 46080727 46250596 46050444 45270208 44120138 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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