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Mesoscale Discussion 1055
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL WY / W-CNTRL AND SWRN SD / NWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308...

   VALID 180437Z - 180530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE WIND GUST RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AND MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE 07Z WATCH EXPIRATION TIME AND
   POSSIBLY MOVE OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT SEVERE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BOW ECHO ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
   AND INTO NERN WY.  A 52-KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT 0415Z AT KECS
   IN NERN WY.  SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A MOIST AXIS
   EXTENDING FROM SWRN NEB NWWD INTO THE NRN PART OF THE NEB PANHANDLE
   AND E-CNTRL WY WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE BLACK HILLS
   SEWD INTO THE NEB SANDHILLS.  

   KUDX VAD SHOWS A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND 0-6
   KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT.  DESPITE TEMPS COOLING INTO THE
   MID-UPPER 60S DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW ECHO...RELATIVELY MOIST LOW
   LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS
   MAINTAINING A MODERATELY BUOYANT AIRMASS.  THE GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ SHOULD AID IN PROMOTING LONGEVITY
   FOR THE STORM COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOW ECHO
   APPROACHES THE SRN BOUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308.

   ..SMITH.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43790561 44280391 44910327 44680207 43440086 42580093
               42260174 42100344 42720512 43790561 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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