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Mesoscale Discussion 1055
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Central/eastern NE...Northern KS...Western IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161841Z - 162015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is possible within the
   next 1-2 hours, with an increase in the coverage of the threat later
   this afternoon. The threat of damaging wind and very large hail will
   likely result in the need for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...At 1830Z, towering cumulus is developing across
   southwest NE in the vicinity of a dryline, with additional attempts
   at surface-based cumulus development further north near a surface
   low across north-central NE. Continued strong heating and the
   glancing influence of a vort max moving across the Dakotas will
   eventually result in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
   southwest into central/north-central NE. Initial development will
   likely remain somewhat isolated and occur within a hot and
   deeply-mixed environment, with sufficient effective shear in place
   to support organized storm structures including supercells. 

   Further east, rich low-level moisture is in the process of returning
   into portions of eastern NE in the wake of last night's MCS. Strong
   to extreme buoyancy will be in place across this region later this
   afternoon, and as thunderstorms move into this environment, a few
   intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
   perhaps a tornado or two will be possible. Some upscale growth is
   possible late this afternoon (becoming more likely toward evening),
   which would result in the development of an enhanced wind damage
   threat expanding into portions of northeast KS, northwest MO, and
   western IA. One or more watches will be required to cover this
   threat later this afternoon into this evening.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40480077 40800020 41359944 41769933 42059945 42369945
               42659909 42789836 42669691 42109602 41179563 40479573
               39759625 39739798 39970077 40480077 

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