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Mesoscale Discussion 1055
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/S WI...FAR N IL...W LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318...

   VALID 180559Z - 180730Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO/S MKX/LOT...WW 318 HAS BEEN
   REDEFINED NWD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WAA CORRIDOR ALONG/N OF THE
   SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCING FROM FAR SE MN INTO FAR SW LOWER MI. WW
   ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A RISK OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL TO THE
   N/E.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE BECOME CONFINED ACROSS CNTRL/S WI TO
   S LK MI...ALONG/N OF AN ARCING WARM FRONT FROM NEAR RST TO MSN TO
   AZO. ALTHOUGH A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL BUOYANCY
   WILL RESIDE S OF THE FRONT...GREATER INHIBITION AND LACK OF
   APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEYOND WAA WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE
   DEVELOPMENT SWD IN THE NEAR-TERM. FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
   MOST PROMINENT IN INITIAL CELLULAR UPDRAFTS...GIVEN MODEST SPEED
   SHEAR EVIDENT AOA 3 KM AGL IN GRB VWP DATA. WITH TIME...MANY OF
   THESE CELLS SHOULD CONGLOMERATE...BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS MAY
   BE SUBDUED BY LACK OF ROBUST LLJ AND COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS
   OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44819040 44698857 44508673 44358595 44058518 43648479
               43108468 42718492 42298601 41888735 42018865 42298978
               42509052 43029087 43589100 44579076 44819040 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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