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Mesoscale Discussion 1056
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W SD...FAR SW ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317...

   VALID 180619Z - 180715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY
   MORNING...WELL BEYOND 07Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 317.
   HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND MAY NOT
   WARRANT A REPLACEMENT WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY TRENDS SUGGEST TSTM
   CLUSTERS OVER W SD HAVE WEAKENED. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE HAIL RISK
   SHOULD BE MARGINAL GIVEN CONSTANT TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT AOA 3 KM AGL IN UDX VWP DATA. STILL...LOW-LEVEL WAA/VEERING
   OF THE WIND PROFILE AMIDST MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FAVOR
   REGENERATIVE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
   RISK. WITH THE MORE ROBUST SWLY LLJ EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY...OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE CLUSTER
   DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45710325 46210289 46410184 46370107 45910060 44900085
               44270111 43960165 43610305 43690405 44590378 44920356
               45710325 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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