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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN VA / MD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377...
VALID 112042Z - 112115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377
CONTINUES.
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS APPRECIABLY LOW FOR WW 377 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN VA AND MD.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW WEAKENING CU FIELD NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY
AHEAD OF DECAYED MCS OVER EXTREME SRN VA AND NRN CNTRL NC. DESPITE
TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S F WITHIN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN SUBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS...APPEARS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS ON DIFFUSE OUTFLOW.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ANTICIPATED TO WANE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELIHOOD OF STUNTED CONVECTION REACHING THE LFC BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LESS PROBABLE WITH TIME. AS SUCH...SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL ATTM...MAY CONTINUE TO DECREASE FURTHER TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..SMITH.. 06/11/2009
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37568663 37648770 37868878 38388920 38838911 39058897
39128830 39418784 39858773 40218679 40138611 39588542
39138550 38498580 37808605 37738606 37568663
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