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Mesoscale Discussion 1056
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1056
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Central/eastern WI...Upper Peninsula of MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161925Z - 162130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of hail and damaging wind are possible
   this afternoon. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
   intensity across portions of WI into the U.P. of MI. This region is
   within the influence of a well-defined upper trough centered over
   western Ontario, with multiple embedded vort maxes noted within the
   belt of westerly flow south of the trough. With breaks in the clouds
   noted across southern and eastern WI into portions of the U.P., some
   additional destabilization is possible over the next 1-2 hours as
   convection continues to increase, with MLCAPE of 750-2000 J/kg
   (increasing with southward extent) developing across the region.
   Moderate westerly flow aloft will result in sufficient effective
   shear (30-35 kts) for some storm organization, though the generally
   ill-defined surface pattern and lack of any substantial low-level
   foci for convection should tend to limit storm coverage and
   intensity to some extent. Relatively steep mid- and low-level lapse
   rates will support a threat of isolated hail and damaging wind with
   the strongest cores, though at this time the threat appears too
   marginal for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44409006 45358990 46609029 46858904 46818644 46588495
               45108608 43848707 43728872 43838961 44409006 

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