|Mesoscale Discussion 1056|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 1056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017
Areas affected...Central/eastern WI...Upper Peninsula of MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161925Z - 162130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated instances of hail and damaging wind are possible
this afternoon. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity across portions of WI into the U.P. of MI. This region is
within the influence of a well-defined upper trough centered over
western Ontario, with multiple embedded vort maxes noted within the
belt of westerly flow south of the trough. With breaks in the clouds
noted across southern and eastern WI into portions of the U.P., some
additional destabilization is possible over the next 1-2 hours as
convection continues to increase, with MLCAPE of 750-2000 J/kg
(increasing with southward extent) developing across the region.
Moderate westerly flow aloft will result in sufficient effective
shear (30-35 kts) for some storm organization, though the generally
ill-defined surface pattern and lack of any substantial low-level
foci for convection should tend to limit storm coverage and
intensity to some extent. Relatively steep mid- and low-level lapse
rates will support a threat of isolated hail and damaging wind with
the strongest cores, though at this time the threat appears too
marginal for watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44409006 45358990 46609029 46858904 46818644 46588495
45108608 43848707 43728872 43838961 44409006
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home