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Mesoscale Discussion 1057
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N IA...S MN...SE SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 319...

   VALID 180652Z - 180815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 319 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK EXISTS WITH SUPERCELL
   CLUSTER OVER NW IA. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS MAY FORM SW/NE AND MERGE
   WITH TSTM CLUSTERS OVER S-CNTRL MN TO YIELD A DEEPENING COLD POOL
   OVER N IA/S MN.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL OVER CLAY COUNTY HAD INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION THAT WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE HALF-HOUR...AS FLANKING
   UPDRAFTS DEVELOPED TO THE W IN O'BRIEN COUNTY. WARM SECTOR TO THE S
   OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE PER 04Z OAX RAOB AND WITH A
   50-60 KT SWLY LLJ PER OAX/UEX VWP DATA...ROBUST REGENERATIVE
   UPDRAFTS APPEAR PROBABLE ATOP CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. CONGLOMERATION OF THESE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY FOSTER A
   DEEPENING COLD POOL ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK FOR A ROBUST FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND RISK MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43569699 43619648 43489527 43869454 44289373 44509328
               44519272 44389242 44099225 43669232 42929273 42339318
               42039363 41919415 41849476 41879546 42169614 42379666
               43109726 43569699 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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