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Mesoscale Discussion 1057
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN TX INTO ADJACENT NWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181031Z - 181200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- POSING RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING LOOPS REVEAL A SLIGHT
   INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY LOCALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
   SO...INCLUDING MODEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A N-S AXIS OF
   GREATER INSTABILITY ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE SABINE RIVER...WHICH
   IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE NOTED/MINOR INCREASE IN STORM
   ORGANIZATION.

   LATEST SHV VWP -- SAMPLING THE BELT OF FLOW WITHIN THE ERN
   SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL -- CONTINUES TO
   REVEAL VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL INCREASE IN
   SPEED WITH HEIGHT YIELDING ROUGHLY 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR.  GIVEN THIS
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION...AN OCCASIONAL/STRONGER STORM
   WITHIN THE BROADER CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN-UP OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..GOSS/CARBIN.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32849235 31799237 31119340 30949446 31659465 32389396
               32959289 32849235 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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