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Mesoscale Discussion 1058
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC...SC...GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181732Z - 182000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH THE
   UPPER RIDGE WITH CU FIELDS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   ELEVATED TERRAIN FROM WRN NC INTO NRN GA...AS WELL AS WITHIN A WEAK
   SFC TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL GA/SC/NC.

   MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT FOR SUCH
   A PATTERN...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES. AS A RESULT OF RAPIDLY RISING
   TEMPERATURES...MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING WITH
   RELATIVELY LARGE LIFTED INDICES. THIS SHOULD ENSURE ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS...LIKELY PULSE IN NATURE...WITH SIGNIFICANT WATER
   LOADING...PERHAPS WITH SMALL HAIL ENHANCING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

   PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA
   FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH LITTLE FOCUS FOR A WATCH.
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND IS STILL PROBABLY ON A LOCALIZED
   SCALE.

   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35018433 35708319 36118222 36368126 36248004 36297735
               36097696 35737669 35187697 34477816 33657979 32688269
               32748384 33578514 34178520 35018433 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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