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Mesoscale Discussion 1058
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1058
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...MS...western AL...eastern LA...eastern
   AR...southwest TN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

   Valid 162040Z - 162245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe storms continues across Watch 338.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage and intensity are increasing across
   northwest and north-central MS, where sufficient density and areal
   coverage of convective plumes are fostering cold pool amalgamation.
   At least loosely organized clusters may evolve from this activity
   and spread south-southeastward into a boundary layer characterized
   by high theta-e. The presence of 20-30 kt of 4-6-km above-ground
   flow indicated by the Jackson VAD wind profile supports this notion
   of modest convective organization. Additional more isolated to
   widely scattered convection is developing farther south, as
   boundary-layer circulations have strengthened amid minimal MLCINH.

   As the aforementioned convection ingests inflow characterized by
   SBCAPE of 3000-5000 J/kg -- aided by 7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse
   rates overlying lower/middle 70s surface dewpoints -- convection
   should continue intensifying. With the potential for more
   cluster-mode convection becoming apparent, damaging wind gusts
   should be the primary hazard -- particularly given DCAPE over 1500
   J/kg in some areas amid the aforementioned large SBCAPE. Severe hail
   may also accompany the strongest incipient updrafts.

   There may be a tendency for the primary corridor of greatest
   severe-wind risk to extend through parts of central MS into the late
   afternoon hours, especially if upscale convective growth were to
   continue. Later this afternoon into the evening, this potential
   cluster of storms -- and/or additional preceding developing 
   storms -- could spread south/southeast of the Watch with a severe
   risk. If the risk for more organized convection with severe
   potential were to become apparent in these areas, some consideration
   could be given to additional Watch issuance.

   ..Cohen.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33059198 34689084 35268968 35078858 33958816 32128792
               30848830 30488967 30599116 31429194 33059198 

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