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Mesoscale Discussion 1059
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W/CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180945Z - 181115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE RISK CONTINUES NEAR-TERM WITH A
   SLOW-MOVING AND LIKELY WEAKENING MCV OVER N-CNTRL SD. ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY INTENSIFY INTO WEAK
   SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV HAS
   PROGRESSED GRADUALLY E/NE AT AROUND 15-25 KT OVER THE MO VALLEY OF
   N-CNTRL SD. THE SRN UPDRAFT OF THIS CLUSTER HAS HAD A PERSISTENT
   SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURE IN WDSS-II MESH ALGORITHMS. GIVEN RELATIVELY
   MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM OF NEAR 25 KT/ EVIDENT IN BIS VWP
   DATA...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD WANE WITH THIS CLUSTER. 

   FARTHER SW...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA/20-KT ELY UPSLOPE HAS FOSTERED
   RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS. WITH THE NW
   PERIPHERY OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING ALONG AN AXIS
   FROM CDR-PHP-PIR...WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY IS LIKELY PRESENT
   ACROSS SW SD. LOW-LEVEL VEERING IN CONJUNCTION WITH WINDS INCREASING
   WITH HEIGHT AOA 2 KM AGL IN UDX VWP DATA COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43520340 43980345 44690347 45390300 45870202 46000042
               45739972 45159946 44829942 44539946 44149997 43670111
               43380267 43390306 43520340 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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