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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 378...
VALID 112241Z - 112345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 378 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 378 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 375 WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT/BY 23Z.
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 375 HAS BEEN STABILIZED IN WAKE
OF EARLIER CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY
ELEVATED/ CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE IT SEEMS THAT SEVERE TSTM WATCH 375 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TRIPLE POINT/WESTWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT SCENARIO ACROSS TORNADO
WATCH 378 WILL BE POTENTIAL UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STEADILY
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. THIS APPEARS TO
ALREADY BE ONGOING NEAR/EAST OF BROWNWOOD TX AS OF 2215Z. WITH A
VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH /4000+ J PER
KG MLCAPE/...AND AROUND 20 KT OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
PRODUCING MCS MAY STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR/WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE HILL COUNTRY...AND POTENTIALLY I-10.
..GUYER.. 06/11/2009
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33580126 33639941 32719616 31909495 30839537 29769848
33580126
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