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Mesoscale Discussion 1059
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN
   CO...NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181826Z - 182030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL
   REPORTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A SWD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN OVERNIGHT
   MCS CONTINUES TO DECELERATE OVER SWRN KS/FAR ERN CO EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...AN ASSOCIATED GRAVITY WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE
   SPURRED WEAK/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. WHILE THOSE
   CELLS DISPLAYED MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO
   ERODE ANY REMAINING CINH...SUCH THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE VIGOROUS
   CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. INDEED...LATEST KDDC DATA IDENTIFY AN
   ELEVATED CORE OVER MORTON CO KS...WITH ZDR COLUMNS SUGGESTIVE OF
   STRONG VERTICAL MOTION.

   SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD AMPLE MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000-3000
   J/KG. WHILE 700-500-MB FLOW IS WEAK TO MODEST AT BEST...SELY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 200-300 MB...OFFERING AT LEAST SOME
   POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROBUST MULTICELLS/TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS. CONSIDERING SIZABLE BUOYANCY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
   /-10 TO -25 C/...SUCH ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A
   LARGE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUGGEST A STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR MAY OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO. CONSIDERING THIS
   POTENTIAL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
   WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/KERR.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36360046 35670099 35390143 35100253 35410345 36130363
               37910302 38410272 38780230 38800174 38480107 38000039
               37380021 36500041 36360046 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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