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Mesoscale Discussion 1060
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY...SRN OH...WV...NRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181828Z - 182030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL EWD FROM SRN OH/NERN KY
   ACROSS WV AND INTO NRN VA.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS LED TO AN ERUPTION OF CELLS OVER NRN
   KY WHICH WILL SOON MOVE INTO SRN OH AND INTO WV. THIS IS OCCURRING
   BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. OVERALL HODOGRAPHS LENGTH IS ONLY
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED CELLS...BUT THE FAVORABLE TIME
   OF DAY AS WELL AS GENERALLY INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORT THE
   IDEA OF A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS WELL AS SMALL BOWING
   STRUCTURES WITH WIND POTENTIAL. 

   IF OVERALL TRENDS CONTINUE UP...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
   FOR POINTS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION.

   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37208080 37778357 37988464 38658528 39178490 39308419
               39528101 39357824 38927772 38187784 37387870 37217920
               37208080 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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