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Mesoscale Discussion 1060
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1060
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0544 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162244Z - 162345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms may be capable of severe hail and
   strong/gusty winds this evening. However, they should remain limited
   in both space and time, precluding watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed across far west Texas
   late this afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent is weak, and
   mid-level temperatures are quite warm; however, orographic and
   dryline circulations have primed the environment sufficiently for
   isolated vigorous updrafts. Moist southeasterly boundary-layer flow
   veers to west/northwest mid/upper flow, promoting effective shear
   around 40-50 kt -- favorable for mid-level rotation. As such, any
   sustained/deep convection will be capable of severe hail and
   strong/gusty winds. However, due to the large-scale environment
   being unfavorable for more widespread coverage, watch issuance is
   not anticipated.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29220380 30580306 31890164 31470103 31030105 30080163
               29810171 29750241 29480274 29090297 28970326 29220380 

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