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Mesoscale Discussion 1061
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181532Z - 181730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ADVANCING ACROSS SRN LAKE MI ATTM WILL MOVE
   INTO/ACROSS THE SRN LOWER MI VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A
   SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTS THAT
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED/LOCALIZED -- AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT
   WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO MOVING
   ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI ATTM...AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
   SRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
   MCS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER
   INSTABILITY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF THE SRN BORDER OF LOWER
   MI.  STILL...THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS BOW AS INDICATED BY
   RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL
   MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AT 40
   KT.  IN ADDITION...SOME RISK THAT INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE SRN
   FLANK OF THE BOW SEEMS TO EXIST GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INTO INDIANA/OH -- DESPITE INDICATIONS TO
   THE CONTRARY WITHIN RECENT WRF-HRRR RUNS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS -- PARTICULARLY ON ITS SRN FRINGE
   -- FOR SIGNS THAT A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   43308651 43378476 43168247 42828221 41638318 40918388
               41158560 41608749 42748665 43308651 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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