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Mesoscale Discussion 1061
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...OH...ERN INDIANA...SERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181928Z - 182130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR GROW UPSCALE A BIT
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. IF THESE TRENDS
   INCREASE...A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...A NEWD-SURGING LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS IL AND NOW
   CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE CELLS HAVE MAINLY CONTAINED WINDS OF 30-45 KT
   ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN THUS FAR.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG HEATING OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
   ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN IND AND OH...BUT THICKER CIRRUS IS RESULTING IN
   COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO LOWER MI. STILL...AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS
   TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   LATEST TRENDS SHOW SOME OF THE CNTRL INDIANA ACTIVITY TRENDING IN
   MORE OF AN EWD DIRECTION...WHICH IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION. THIS SUGGEST
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE
   AND/OR GROWING UPSCALE WITH TIME. IF THIS SHOULD OCCUR...THEN A
   WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. BOTH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   LOT...

   LAT...LON   39288307 39348472 39498569 39928633 40398652 40978726
               41418687 41938543 42358465 42828336 42768195 42138111
               40678088 39668120 39328191 39288307 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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