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Mesoscale Discussion 1062
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 181813Z - 181945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS/SEVERE RISK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A TORNADO WATCH LIKELY REQUIRED WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE A
   HEATING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ATTM...NEAR AND E
   OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NNWWD FROM A LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE
   SD/NEB BORDER JUST NE OF ANW.  ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF THE
   TROUGH/N OF THE LOW BENEATH MODERATE SWLYS AT MID LEVELS IS YIELDING
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...WHICH COMBINED WITH
   ONGOING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RAMP-UP IN
   SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON.  ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS
   ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  AS SUCH...TORNADO
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HOUR.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47049983 46279884 45569807 44539760 44109888 43970057
               45050146 46060193 46880139 47049983 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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