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Mesoscale Discussion 1063
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MD...ERN VA...AND WASHINGTON DC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182135Z - 182230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IS
   FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS AS TSTM CLUSTER
   ADVANCES SEWD TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE
   WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
   HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING
   HAS OCCURRED...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MORE ROBUST CELL OVER FAIRFAX
   CO VA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH AXIS OF
   1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL UPWARD PULSES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   WITH LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK SEWD
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER ERN VA. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC
   HEATING.

   ..ROGERS/WEISS.. 06/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38647759 39117702 39117648 38737606 38387575 37687577
               37467647 37887728 38647759 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2015
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