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Mesoscale Discussion 1063
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181919Z - 182015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED WITH ONE OR MORE WATCHES POSSIBLY NEEDED TO COVER THE
   THREAT. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SVR HAIL WITH A SECONDARY
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CU ACROSS SW
   KS AND ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER E OF CVS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
   MAY BE OBSCURING SOME CU AROUND AMA AS WELL. DIURNAL HEATING
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE
   ANALYSIS REVEALS A DUAL DRYLINE STRUCTURE WITH THE LEADING DRYLINE
   EXTENDING FROM SW KS SSWWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND TX S
   PLAINS. THE SECONDARY DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM A LOW IN SE CO ACROSS
   FAR WRN NM. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING
   DRYLINE BUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
   SECONDARY DRYLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER NE NM MOVING INTO SW KS. 

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J PER KG ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING DRYLINE. LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS GENERALLY
   AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING
   MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AROUND 20 KT. THE RESULT IS A WEAKLY SHEARED
   PROFILE. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD.

   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY
   THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ONE OR
   MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35930182 38310157 38780183 39160100 38559996 37399971
               36809979 35100060 32480223 32720331 34100267 35930182 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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