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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 378...
VALID 120042Z - 120145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 378 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 378 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH PRIMARY/POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL TX NEARING THE I-35
CORRIDOR/HILL COUNTRY IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDING THE AUSTIN
VICINITY.
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH BOUTS OF EMBEDDED STORM SCALE
ROTATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR/HILL COUNTRY AND GEORGETOWN/AUSTIN AREAS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS AND A VOLATILE AIRMASS
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TORNADO AS WELL. ALONG THESE
LINES...A 58 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY MEASURED IN BURNETT TX AS OF
0027Z...WITH REPORTS OF GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IN LAMPASAS
COUNTY. ITS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COMPLEX WILL
SURVIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT GIVEN ITS ORGANIZATION/EXISTING
COLD POOL AND MODEST LOW LEVEL/HIGHLY BUOYANT INFLOW...A SUSTAINED
THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE 02Z TIMEFRAME SEEMS PROBABLE. AS
SUCH...A LOCAL SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE EXISTING WATCH AND/OR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE WARRANTED.
ELSEWHERE...WITH FAILED ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST
OF THE LUBBOCK AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
TORNADO WW 378. PENDING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS...SUCH PORTIONS OF WW
378 MAY ULTIMATELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 03Z.
..GUYER.. 06/12/2009
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 34180118 33870012 31689747 30819668 29649814 33050109
34180118
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