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Mesoscale Discussion 1063
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1063
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the upper Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340...

   Valid 162356Z - 170100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may advance outside the
   northern bounds of Watch 340 this evening. Currently, downstream
   watch issuance does not appear imminent, but convective trends will
   be monitored for an uptick in intensity near southern/eastern
   portions of the watch this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of left-moving cells are advancing towards the
   northern edge of Watch 340 this evening. Forecast sounding and
   regional VWP data indicate relatively straight mid-level hodographs,
   suggesting some maintenance of these cells and a persisting threat
   of strong/gusty winds and near-severe hail. However, over time,
   decreasing buoyancy with northward extent should result in a
   downward intensity trend. Farther southwest, a large precipitation
   shield has overspread much of northern Iowa, casting some doubt upon
   convective intensification/re-development here. Nonetheless, a warm
   and moist boundary layer exists to the south of a trailing outflow
   boundary stretching across northern Iowa. Within this corridor,
   high-res guidance indicates strong/severe convection may develop
   later this evening, with an attendant threat of damaging winds and
   large hail. While new watch issuance does not appear imminent, one
   could be necessary later this evening.

   ..Picca.. 06/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42479557 42949471 43149294 43249281 43599192 44349148
               44709117 44739026 44418946 43018945 41988940 41649053
               41869321 41879488 42209563 42479557 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2017
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