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Mesoscale Discussion 1064
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181956Z - 182130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL
   INDIANA AS THE AIRMASS REACHES PEAK AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. 
   SEVERE RISK REMAINS ISOLATED...BUT COULD REQUIRE WW IF STORMS
   ORGANIZE UPSCALE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL A VERY
   WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG.  WHILE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA...STORMS TRAILING
   WWD INTO E CENTRAL IL NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NOW OVER
   THE IROQUOIS/FORD/CHAMPAIGN/VERMILION COUNTY VICINITY OF IL SHOWING
   SOME BOWING TENDENCY.  

   WHILE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KM REMAINS RELATIVELY MODEST /AOB 20 KT
   PER AREA VWPS/...THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT --
   GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT -- TO SUPPORT SOME
   INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.  SOME HIGH-RES
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING RUNS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
   ORGANIZED/BOWING CLUSTER MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
   SUNSET...AND THIS EVOLUTION WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38968752 38878848 39348900 40038891 40438808 40628677
               40468506 39218591 38988670 38968752 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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