Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the mid Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...341...
Valid 170227Z - 170430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339, 341
SUMMARY...A line of significant severe thunderstorms will continue
accelerating south/southeast this evening, maintaining the potential
for a swath of damaging winds (some gusts over 80 mph), large hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two. This line will likely reach the Kansas
City metro after 11pm CDT.
DISCUSSION...A mature complex of powerful thunderstorms is racing
southeast this evening, into an axis of strong instability
characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 4500 J/kg. Indeed, the 00Z
TOP sounding sampled an excessively wide mid-level buoyancy profile
amidst a favorable deep-layer wind profile veering with height. Rich
boundary-layer moisture will temper nocturnal cooling such that this
high buoyancy (with little inhibition) will be maintained for the
next few hours. As such, these significant severe storms are
expected to maintain their intensity as they continue pushing
southeast. Furthermore, a strengthening low-level jet will likely
enhance both downwind and upwind propagation this evening,
maintaining the threat of powerful damaging wind gusts. Upstream
observations confirm this severe potential, with Lincoln, NE
reporting a 76kt (87mph) gust at 0137Z (837pm CDT). Significant
severe wind gusts (upwards of 80mph), large hail, and a tornado or
two will remain possible with this line as it advances towards the
Kansas City metro area over the next two hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40559813 41369619 41249448 39899364 38629332 38349351
38269486 38619625 39539739 40099815 40559813