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Mesoscale Discussion 1065
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 182029Z - 182200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE/TORNADO RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY
   INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS SERN SD AND ADJACENT NRN
   NEB...NEAR AND E OF A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED E OF ANW ATTM.  A MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED/ESEWD-ALIGNED WARM
   FRONT HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG INDICATED.  

   THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERING
   TO SWLY WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 30-40 KT AT MID LEVELS IS
   YIELDING AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- AND
   ASSOCIATED SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TIMING OF POSSIBLE
   WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

   LAT...LON   44139635 43149615 42139628 41829768 42309958 43469936
               45149843 44929670 44139635 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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