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Mesoscale Discussion 1065
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Areas affected...Areas from northeast Kansas to the mid Mississippi
   Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...

   Valid 170414Z - 170545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A powerful mesoscale convective system is racing southeast
   this evening, while maintaining a threat of numerous damaging gusts,
   wind-driven hail, and a tornado or two. One or more downstream
   watches will likely be needed over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...An expanding line of severe thunderstorms is dropping
   south/southeast across the mid Missouri Valley this evening, aided
   by strong storm-relative inflow in the lowest approximately 2 km,
   based on recent EAX VWP data. This convective system has expanded in
   length recently, as the downwind-propagating component has
   accelerated eastward across northern Missouri, while very robust
   upwind propagation (with multiple embedded supercells) has advanced
   into northern Kansas. Across this line, a continued threat of
   numerous severe/damaging gusts (a few of which will likely be 75-80+
   mph) will exist. Indeed, St. Joseph MO gusted to 66kt (76mph) at
   0347Z (1047pm CDT). While surface cooling and drier boundary-layer
   conditions have brought about a quicker increase in inhibition
   across eastern Missouri, steep lapse rates and forced ascent along
   outflow could maintain a threat of damaging winds beyond the eastern
   bound of the watch. Therefore, a new downstream watch may be
   considered.

   Farther west, the combination of embedded organized updrafts, ample
   mid-level buoyancy, and strongly forced low-level ascent should be
   sufficient to overcome inhibition and spread the severe threat to
   the southern edge of the watch later tonight. Therefore, downstream
   watch issuance across southern Missouri and far southeast Kansas
   will likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Picca.. 06/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37689401 37969575 38799683 39259713 39389722 39779740
               39919717 39929660 39819533 39869438 40179399 40599343
               40519224 39899177 38759183 37739329 37689401 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2017
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