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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380...
VALID 120200Z - 120300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 380 CONTINUES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TORNADO WATCH 380 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO NEAR THE LAMAR AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS.
LONG LIVED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR/NORTH OF THE LAMAR AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD AT
AROUND 20-25 KT INTO SOUTHWEST KS. WITH A NOCTURNALLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR SURFACE CINH DOES INCREASE INTO SOUTHWEST
KS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE ONGOING STORMS AND A
STRONGLY SHEARED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DODGE CITY
RAOB MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED WIND/HAIL THREAT INTO SOUTHWEST KS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN CO WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 380...SUCH THAT THE
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT/BY 03Z.
..GUYER.. 06/12/2009
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38590346 38740182 38230051 37340121 37540335 38590346
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