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Mesoscale Discussion 1066
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / WRN TX-OK PANHANDLES / TX S PLAINS / ERN
   NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...

   VALID 190004Z - 190100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   CONFINED WESTWARD IN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE
   THREAT HAVING DIMINISHED OVER THE ERN HALF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 310.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STEADY WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO A
   COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY FROM
   THE TX S PLAINS NWD INTO E-CNTRL CO.  EMBRYONIC UPDRAFTS HAVE
   PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPED TO THE IMMEDIATE E OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SERVING AS AN INDICATION SHALLOW LIFT IS NEEDED FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME.  LARGE
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 40 DEG F ARE PRESENT TO THE W OF THE
   BOUNDARY OVER THE TX S PLAINS AND ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO.  THE
   STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 19/00Z AMA RAOB WILL
   SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS TO YIELD ISOLD
   WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-65 MPH RANGE.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
   THE MORE INTENSE CORES AND IS INDICATED BY MRMS MESH DATA DURING THE
   PAST 30 MINUTES.  AN EVENTUAL AMALGAMATION OF COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
   SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING AND ZIPPERING SWD OVER ERN NM NEAR
   THE STATE BORDER.

   ..SMITH.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33150289 34440351 35760378 37470335 38110284 38060241
               36730265 35690251 33440153 33150289 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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