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Mesoscale Discussion 1067
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0910 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190210Z - 190315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A CONVECTIVE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SMALL CLUSTER OF
   STORMS OVER STILLWATER COUNTY WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT BEING
   RESTRAINED TO THE N OVER CNTRL MT.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM
   OF THE EWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER SHOW ELY WINDS WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S IN BIL.  THE KBLX VAD SHOWS A STRONG WIND
   PROFILE AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPH DUE PRIMARILY TO 50-70 KT FLOW IN
   THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE.  ALTHOUGH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS VIA LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE TFX RAOB ATOP A RATHER
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR...WILL
   POTENTIALLY PROMOTE INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.  THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONVECTIVE WATCH WOULD INCREASE IF
   STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..SMITH/WEISS.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45490957 46260885 46300568 45120519 45050903 45490957 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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