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Mesoscale Discussion 1067
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern KS/western...central...and northeast
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...343...344...

   Valid 170758Z - 171000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341, 343,
   344 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe-weather threat (damaging winds and
   hail) is expected to be across eastern KS and west-central to
   southwest MO through early this morning.  KS counties located along
   the western part of WW 344 may need to be added, while parts of WW
   341 is extended in time, as new storms continue to form across the
   west/northwest periphery of the ongoing convective complex and
   spread to the southeast.

   Meanwhile, the severe-weather threat should continue to weaken
   across WW 343.

   DISCUSSION......WW 341 and WW 344...
   Trends in IR satellite and radar imagery indicated the western and
   southwest portions of the large KS/MO/IA/IL mesoscale-convective
   complex across eastern KS and western and southwest portions of MO
   should pose the greatest severe-weather threat through early this
   morning.  Coldest cloud tops and the most persistent, intense storms
   per MRMS data extended from southeast Marshall/northern Pottawatomie
   Counties KS to Franklin/northern Anderson and Miami Counties KS to
   Henry/northwest Benton/southwest Pettis Counties MO.  A southwest
   40-kt low-level jet extending into the southwest portion of the MCC
   from OK will sustain an inflow of very strong instability (2500-4000
   J/kg of most-unstable CAPE per objective analyses and 06Z Lamont, OK
   sounding).  This combined with vertically veering wind profile (per
   06Z LMN sounding), with effective bulk shear exceeding 45-50 kt,
   will maintain strong updrafts.  In addition to locally damaging
   winds remaining possible, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8
   C/km per 06Z LMN sounding) extending from southern KS to southern MO
   will favor a large-hail threat along the west/southwest part of the
   MCC.  This latter threat could result in additional counties in
   east-central/southeast KS being added to WW 344.

   ...WW 343...
   Weakening trends in MRMS CAPPI (5-9 km) and MESH data combined with
   a great reduction in lightning data across northeast MO suggest the
   overall severe-weather threat should continue wane across WW 343
   during the overnight.  Veering 850-mb winds further weakening
   low-level convergence across this region support this scenario, and
   this watch could be canceled prior to 10Z (5 AM).

   ..Peters.. 06/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39719648 39549593 39309571 38929507 38759467 38639440
               38639376 38679331 38529254 38439201 38579164 39519130
               39059065 38609101 37839157 37099236 36739419 37019543
               38549618 39719648 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2017
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