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Mesoscale Discussion 1068
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast KS and southwest MO into far northeast OK
   and northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...

   Valid 171031Z - 171200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344

   SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat will be the greatest across the
   western portion of WW 344 (in southeast KS and southwest MO) through
   early this morning.  Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will
   be the primary severe risks.  Although some severe hail and/or
   stronger/damaging wind gusts could affect part of far northeast OK
   and northwest AR, the expected spatial coverage is expected to
   remain too small to warrant a new WW issuance, at this time.

   DISCUSSION...The leading band of storms in southwest MO exited the
   southern extent of WW 344 just before 10Z and is moving to the
   south-southeast at close to 40 kt.  Although this forward speed
   would tend to support locally strong/damaging wind gusts, the
   strength of surface-based inhibition and weak surface-3-km lapse
   rates should continue to limit most stronger/damaging wind gusts
   from reaching the surface as activity moves into northwest AR.

   Meanwhile, a threat remains for mainly large hail, some exceeding 2
   inches in diameter, across southeast KS into far southwest MO
   through early this morning.  Trends in MRMS MESH data and CAPPI (5-9
   km) through 1005Z indicated strong, sustained updrafts in southeast
   KS (Allen and Crawford Counties), while upstream storms moving
   southeast into and through Douglas County KS were restrengthening. 
   Trends in IR satellite imagery indicated an overall shrinking in
   size of the larger thunderstorm complex in eastern KS and MO. 
   However, a 35-40-kt west-southwesterly low-level jet extending from
   OK into the southwest periphery of this convection is expected to
   sustain thunderstorm development through early this morning, with an
   influx of strong instability.  This combined with effective bulk
   shear around 50 kt and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
   strong, sustained updrafts with large hail the primary threat.

   ..Peters.. 06/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36719281 36369313 36269379 36259439 36369473 37199536
               37489545 38039550 38039428 37279306 36719281 

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