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Mesoscale Discussion 1068
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MT/FAR NERN WY/NORTHWEST SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312...

   VALID 190828Z - 191000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A LINE OF STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
   STRUCTURES AT TIMES...TRACKS TO THE EAST AFFECTING NORTHWEST SD
   THROUGH 10Z.  LOCAL WFO SPATIAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST
   SIDE OF WW 312 /PRIMARILY INTO ZIEBACH COUNTY SD/.  OTHERWISE...THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF
   THE LINE OF STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS /THROUGH 0810Z/ IN AREA WSR-88D DATA
   INDICATE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH A BOWING
   SIGNATURE IN NORTHERN BUTTE/SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTIES SD...WAS
   MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45 KT...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE OF
   THE MCS WAS MOVING MORE SLOWLY TO THE ESE AT 35 KT.  THE NRN BOW
   STRUCTURE SHOULD REACH ZIEBACH COUNTY SD BY 0930Z...WITH LOCAL WFO
   AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 312 POSSIBLE FOR THIS COUNTY.  

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN SD
   WITH A 45-KT SLY LLJ PER UNR VAD MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF THIS
   INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MCS EARLY
   THIS MORNING.  GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LLJ DURING THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS
   WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED EWD TRACK OF THE MCS ACROSS MAINLY
   NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SD.  A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND
   ACCOMPANYING WLY 50-KT JETLET WILL SUSTAIN BULK SHEAR FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS MCS WILL
   ADVANCE TO THE ESE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD BY 10-11Z...THE OVERALL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
   AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN WESTERN SD.

   ..PETERS.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45580368 45710356 45750219 45360159 44830121 44100118
               44100256 44110394 44410448 44940382 45280379 45580368 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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