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Mesoscale Discussion 1069
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...CNTRL/SRN OH...SERN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182230Z - 182330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO EXPAND S/EWD INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
   NEW WW ISSUANCE FROM SERN IND ENEWD INTO WRN PA WILL BE CONTINGENT
   ON TRENDS FOR INCREASING COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MAGNITUDE
   OF THE WIND THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD POOL EMANATING OUT OF THE SRN END OF A
   QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER CNTRL IND AND NWRN OH IS MERGING
   WITH MORE DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TO THE S...ACROSS
   S-CNTRL IND AND W-CNTRL OH...AND MORE RECENTLY ACROSS NWRN PA.
   LATEST STORM REPORTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR
   TRENDS INDICATING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS
   SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. TRENDS
   CONTINUE TO INDICATE BOTH THE COLD POOL AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
   ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS/. WITH 20-30 KT OF AMBIENT WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...THREAT FOR
   STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH WW
   ISSUANCE PREDICATED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTION.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   41177880 40187973 39368181 38968447 39068610 39418615
               40208518 40958352 41338249 41617974 41177880 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2014
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