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Mesoscale Discussion 1069
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1069
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0928 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...and far
   northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171428Z - 171630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of strong/locally severe storms will
   continue moving south across the eastern Oklahoma vicinity,
   accompanied by local risk for marginally severe hail/wind.  Though
   at this time convection is expected to remain limited in coverage,
   and eventually decreasing in intensity over the 1-2 hours, WW may be
   required if storms persist/increase in coverage and intensity.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show a small cluster of
   vigorous convection moving southward across parts of eastern
   Oklahoma, within an axis of low- to mid-70s dewpoints and associated
   maximum in mixed-layer CAPE (around 2000 J/kg).  Area RAOBs and VWPs
   show rather modest -- though veering -- flow with height, along with
   a slowly diminishing west-southwesterly low-level jet.  

   A plume of very warm/dry air near 850 mb is being advected slowly
   eastward, and thus capping will limit any potential for westward
   expansion of storms along the southwestward-moving outflow. 
   Additionally, the morning SHV RAOB also shows substantial capping,
   suggesting that southward progression of the convection will also
   likely remain limited.  As such, a rather small spatial area for
   continuation of the ongoing convection is suggested.  Additionally,
   with relatively modest flow aloft to limit overall organization
   potential, ongoing severe risk is expected to remain limited in
   magnitude, and contained areally and temporally.  Still, should
   diurnal heating south of the convection in a relatively cloud-free
   zone over southeast Oklahoma allow storms to persist, and increase
   somewhat in coverage, WW would be considered.

   ..Goss/Weiss.. 06/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35709461 35429392 34559355 33709392 33559457 33629541
               33979606 34849610 35769565 35999498 35709461 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2017
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