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Mesoscale Discussion 1069
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN TN / FAR SERN MO / FAR WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190922Z - 191015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
   AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE
   IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A
   STORM EXHIBITING SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER MISSISSIPPI
   COUNTY AR AS OF 910Z.  WHILE THE AIR MASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
   OVER NRN AR COUPLED WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF LOWER- TO
   MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS YIELDING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
   STORM ORGANIZATION.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A
   MEANINGFUL RISK FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES. 
   HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY
   THIS MORNING.

   ..MEAD.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35709103 36559061 37168949 37138888 36978852 36578841
               36148840 35288883 35078974 35019024 35019058 35129080
               35709103 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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