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Mesoscale Discussion 1070
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1070
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of MS/LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171821Z - 172045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail/wind may accompany
   thunderstorms developing this afternoon and continuing into the
   evening hours. Watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Air-mass recovery over the vicinity of the western
   reaches of modifying convective outflow, deposited by
   yesterday's/last night's MCS clusters, is ongoing owing to ample
   insolation. Meanwhile, west-southwesterly low-level flow is
   encouraging isentropic ascent atop the residual outflow, with weak
   capping across the region aided by ample diabatic surface-layer
   heating amid dewpoints in the middle 70s. This will continue to
   support an increase in the number and intensity of thunderstorms
   across the region during the next few hours, with storms forecast to
   move across the region into the evening.

   Given moist-boundary-layer-overlying midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5
   C/km attendant to a well-established EML plume, large buoyancy is in
   place with SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. This will support intense
   updrafts. Furthermore, with the region being on the eastern
   periphery of a belt of enhanced northerlies in the midlevels,
   effective shear of 25-35 kt may facilitate a few organized/sustained
   convective structures capable of severe hail/wind into the evening
   hours. However, without stronger low-level/deep ascent, the coverage
   of severe thunderstorms is presently forecast to be too limited for
   Watch issuance.

   ..Cohen/Weiss.. 06/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29239081 29789239 32049222 32969115 31608985 30378948
               29488986 29239081 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2017
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