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Mesoscale Discussion 1070
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182306Z - 190000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY RECENT
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN IL...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   WW ISSUANCE ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURRING WITHIN A GENERAL W-E CORRIDOR...POSITIONED FROM JUST E OF
   DBQ EWD TO NEAR CHICAGO. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TO THE
   IMMEDIATE N OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM A SFC LOW OVER
   LOWER MI...WITH A SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FARTHER S TO
   NEAR MLI. THE AIR MASS TO THE N OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS GRADUALLY
   MODIFIED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH PROXIMITY SFC OBS
   SHOWING UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F TEMPERATURES. TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY
   TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN IL AS AN INFLUX
   OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE SW IS MAINTAINED...AMIDST STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AT 1500-2000 J/KG
   PER RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AS A RESULT...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO
   BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS STRONG-MARGINALLY
   SVR WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41638763 41658906 41899001 42189018 42388997 42388954
               42378863 42148788 42088767 41638763 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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