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Mesoscale Discussion 1071
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS / WRN OK / TX PANHANDLE / WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323...324...

   VALID 182341Z - 190115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   323...324...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS PARTS OF WW 324 AND
   WW 323 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT AND DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY...WW ISSUANCE BEYOND THE
   03Z EXPIRATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000-MB LOW OVER SERN
   CO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM. SLY TO SELY FLOW
   IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
   MID 60S F. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE
   ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. IN SPITE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MORE ISOLATED DUE TO
   RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT ON THE DODGE CITY
   AND AMARILLO WSR-88D VWPS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF LESS THAN
   30 KT. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE-HAIL THREAT MAINLY ACROSS THE
   ERN PART OF WW 323 AND WW 324 WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33250044 33120136 33950311 34630322 35290233 35680133
               36700094 37440111 39470043 39379794 36739948 34760008
               33250044 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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