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Mesoscale Discussion 1071
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL/SRN IND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   THE LWR OHIO VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191748Z - 191945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...GENERALLY
   WEAK...TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGH 21-22Z.  IT STILL APPEARS
   UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL REQUIRE A WATCH...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY...AS INSOLATION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN HEATING OF A
   SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AT OR ABOVE 70F.  THIS INCLUDES THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN A BROAD/WEAK
   REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ARCING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
   INDIANA...JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING REMNANTS OF
   TROPICAL STORM BILL.  WITHIN THIS ZONE...NEAR THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT
   SOUTHERLY 850 JET ASSOCIATED WITH BILL...NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE A
   PRONOUNCED EASTERLY COMPONENT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOMEWHAT
   LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /COMPARED TO THOSE SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY/ WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS AND SUPPORT FOR THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS THROUGH
   21-22Z.

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38398934 39168730 38868627 38058633 37598738 37088848
               37328926 38398934 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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