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Mesoscale Discussion 1072
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190008Z - 190145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS NE CO AND SW NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000-MB LOW OVER SE CO
   WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   UPPER 30S F AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE
   RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET NEAR 500 MB. THE JET IS ENHANCING
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NERN CO WHERE THE MAGNITUDE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
   IS ESTIMATED IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS CELLS
   MOVE NEWD INTO THE CO HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.

   FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SWRN NEB...ISOLATED CELLS HAVE INITIATED
   NEAR OGALLALA NEB IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE
   00Z SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE NEB SHOWS MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH
   0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 9.0
   C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40610125 39960212 39480348 39660467 40380509 41110420
               41300152 40610125 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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