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Mesoscale Discussion 1072
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191853Z - 192100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.  TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
   MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE
   STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 40-50 KNOT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION.  STORMS MAY
   GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DUE TO STRENGTHENING
   INSTABILITY AND INCREASED FORCING ALOFT DUE TO AN APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
   AND SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /AT LEAST
   THROUGH 00Z/...BUT STORMS THAT TRAVERSE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED FROM 65 WNW GGW TO 30 S OLF TO 20 WSW MOT MAY ACQUIRE
   SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO LOCALIZED VORTICITY
   INGEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.  LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46750776 46930891 47360941 48050927 48680887 48960810
               48980684 49000534 48980427 48930243 48520099 48030052
               47410085 47110182 46830394 46810573 46750776 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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