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Mesoscale Discussion 1073
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172054Z - 172300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential may accompany storms moving
   across parts of southeastern Lower MI through late afternoon.
   Present indications are that Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A small area of convection has intensified in
   association with a residual MCV moving across Lower MI. This
   activity will continue spreading eastward from parts of central
   Lower MI into southeastern/east-central Lower MI during the next few
   hours. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg combined with 25-35 kt of
   effective shear may be sufficient for a few semi-organized
   convective structures to be maintained with locally damaging wind
   gusts possible. Given the limited overlap of MCV-related ascent with
   stronger buoyancy, and poor midlevel lapse rates, greater severe
   potential is not anticipated.

   ..Cohen/Weiss.. 06/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42928441 43358365 43378267 42768248 42168303 42148381
               42228428 42508453 42928441 

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