|Mesoscale Discussion 1073|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172054Z - 172300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential may accompany storms moving
across parts of southeastern Lower MI through late afternoon.
Present indications are that Watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A small area of convection has intensified in
association with a residual MCV moving across Lower MI. This
activity will continue spreading eastward from parts of central
Lower MI into southeastern/east-central Lower MI during the next few
hours. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg combined with 25-35 kt of
effective shear may be sufficient for a few semi-organized
convective structures to be maintained with locally damaging wind
gusts possible. Given the limited overlap of MCV-related ascent with
stronger buoyancy, and poor midlevel lapse rates, greater severe
potential is not anticipated.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42928441 43358365 43378267 42768248 42168303 42148381
42228428 42508453 42928441
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