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| Mesoscale Discussion 1074 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309...
VALID 140206Z - 140300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG-SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN MT. WW 309 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 0300Z...BUT MAY NEED
TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED...OR POSSIBLY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
MT WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A PAC NW UPPER TROUGH.
DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS...RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
PERSISTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES...WITH OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN CONCERT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT COULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR CONVECTION BEYOND THE WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME. ADDITIONALLY...13/12Z NSSL-WRF AND 14/00Z SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
MT AND MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THUS...THE NEED FOR A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME OF WW
309...OR POSSIBLY ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF 0300Z.
..ROGERS/HART.. 06/14/2013
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48990490 48670387 46100383 45260486 45050629 45050736
45180931 45370962 46800956 47540940 48300916 48830860
48920785 48950598 48990490
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