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Mesoscale Discussion 1074
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192011Z - 192215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   AT LEAST SPOTTY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AFTER INITIATING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SMOKY
   MOUNTAINS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AS
   WELL AS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
   CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.  MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION APPEARS
   WEAK... BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE LINGERING
   INHIBITION.  

   THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT INTO INLAND PORTIONS
   OF THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS BECOME HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   NEAR 70F.  THIS AIR MASS ALSO APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
   LARGE CAPE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE FURTHER STORM
   INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP
   LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED EASTWARD PROPAGATION
   OF THE STORMS NOW FORMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM SEA BREEZE STORMS MAY
   SUPPORT WESTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
   INTO THE PIEDMONT.  CONSIDERABLE STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS SEEM
   LIKELY TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORM
   CLUSTERS.  HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...AIDED
   BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34748263 35048171 35607981 35647904 35757667 34417790
               34157878 33657963 32998077 33388240 34748263 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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