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Mesoscale Discussion 1075
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0914 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN KS...SE NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190214Z - 190315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS SCNTRL AND SERN NEB. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002-MB LOW OVER SERN
   SD WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB
   INTO NW KS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONGOING IN PHILLIPS COUNTY KS
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED. THE ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY OVER WCNTRL KS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM ARE
   NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE.
   THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ENABLE THE STORM TO HAVE A SEVERE
   THREAT LATE THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   MAKE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
   DECREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS
   THE REGION.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   39939939 39729883 40429722 41199712 41269839 40569923
               39939939 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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