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Mesoscale Discussion 1075
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192038Z - 192215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...COLLIDING SEA-BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA APPEAR LIKELY TO LEAD TO AT
   LEAST SCATTERED INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   23-00Z.  THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME FAIRLY STRONGLY HEATED
   AND DEEPLY MIXED /SURFACE TEMPS REACHING LOW TO MID 90S/...AND
   CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND IT
   APPEARS THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AUGMENTED BY SUB-CLOUD
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WEAKENS
   EARLY THIS EVENING

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29858233 29588157 28518104 27218048 26798036 25768089
               26498162 26898188 27968144 28908177 29858233 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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