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Mesoscale Discussion 1076
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL IND...W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190229Z - 190330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS NWRN IND IS
   EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
   SWD THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE LATE EVENING...BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NRN IL HAS PERSISTED
   WITH SEWD PROGRESSION INTO NWRN IND...CURRENTLY POSITIONED WITHIN A
   MODIFIED AIR MASS N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE
   AREA. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH PROXIMITY SFC OBS SUGGEST
   THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR
   IMAGES FROM LOT/IND SAMPLED VERY STRONG VELOCITIES AT AROUND
   5000-6000 FT AGL...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING STRONG-SVR
   WIND GUSTS. 

   CURRENT MOTION EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
   REMAIN TO THE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN A RELATIVELY LESS
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE STILL UNCERTAIN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
   THAT CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SWD
   PROGRESSION INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PROXIMITY TO
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
   SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS IS OCCURRING N OF THE
   BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL IND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW SHOULD A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SVR
   WIND GUSTS BECOME APPARENT.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39488646 40078788 40458859 40558868 40888860 41168786
               41158729 40978664 40738596 40568568 40148531 39878534
               39288563 39488646 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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