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Mesoscale Discussion 1076
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT....WRN/CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...

   VALID 192248Z - 192345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WRN ND
   WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH 313. UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QUASI-LINEAR MODE
   REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...HYBRID SUPERCELL/BOWING SEGMENT CROSSING INTO NERN ND
   REMAINS THE MOST PROMINENT STORM WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH 313...CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO THE S OF THIS
   STORM ACROSS DAWSON/WIBAUX COUNTIES...AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST
   INTERACTION/MERGER WITH THE DOMINANT STORM TO THE N MAY OCCUR WITHIN
   THE NEXT HR OR SO. DESPITE BEING TO THE N OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ORIENTED GENERALLY W-E ACROSS ND...THE DOWNSHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORM SUSTENANCE AND A CONTINUED SVR THREAT
   ACROSS WRN SD. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY
   INSTABILITY AXIS /CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ IN
   PLACE...CO-LOCATED WITH LOW-MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. EVENTUAL TRANSITION
   INTO A MORE ORGANIZED MCS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS A RESULT
   OF TSTM/INTERACTION MERGERS...IN WHICH CASE A DMGG WIND THREAT COULD
   EXTEND EWD INTO CNTRL ND. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   48980066 48419950 47439880 45989902 45959982 45950405
               46440587 48260589 48990418 49000405 49000150 49000150
               48980066 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2015
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