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Mesoscale Discussion 1077
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...WRN/SRN MN.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190242Z - 190515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA OVER NEXT 3-4
   HOURS WITH TWO INITIALLY SEPARATE BUT POTENTIALLY MERGING AREAS OF
   TSTMS IN SWRN MN AND ERN DAKOTAS.  SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY
   REQUIRE WW.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER E-CENTRAL SD NEAR TAIL
   END OF QLCS...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS GENERALLY SWD
   OVER NERN NEB.  WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM LOW ESEWD OVER SWRN
   CORNER OF MN AND N-CENTRAL IA...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD 10-15 KT
   THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.

   CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MN AS LOW-LEVEL
   WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LLJ. 
   ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS AND SHOULD REMAIN N OF WARM
   FRONT...MODIFICATIONS TO OAX/MPX/ABR RAOBS SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED
   EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS CURRENTLY ARE POSSIBLE ROUGHLY S OF MKT-VVV
   LINE.  OFFSETTING STABILIZING EFFECTS WILL BECOME MORE
   IMPORTANT--NAMELY GROWING TSTM/OUTFLOW COVERAGE AND GRADUAL DIABATIC
   SFC COOLING AMIDST MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  VERTICAL SHEAR N OF WARM
   FRONT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH 400-500 J/KG.
    AS SUCH...LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HOWEVER...MODAL PROBLEMS...MAINLY WITH
   TSTM CLUSTERING...ALSO COULD MITIGATE HAIL/TORNADO RISK TO SOME
   EXTENT.

   MEANWHILE...QLCS INITIALLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD/NEWD OVER WWS 327/328
   MAY POSE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AS IT MOVES INTO STABILIZING BUT
   STILL AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN ND AND
   W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN.  MLCINH STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY WITH NWD EXTENT
   FROM MSP-FAR STRETCH OF I-94 AND NEWD FROM FOSTER COUNTY
   ND...INDICATING CORRESPONDING LESSENING OF ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL.
    WITHIN TRIANGULAR WEDGE OF AIR BETWEEN CINH LINE...QLCS AND WARM
   FRONT...MLCAPE INCREASED FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER SERN ND TO 4500
   J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

   ..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44599610 46639678 46669835 47359843 47609685 47139590
               46159522 45159452 44169385 43599405 43619584 44599610 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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