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Mesoscale Discussion 1077
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / NERN WY / WRN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 314...

   VALID 200038Z - 200145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 314 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INITIALLY DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE
   LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NERN
   WY WITH A COMPOSITE FRONT/COLD POOL SERVING AS AN EFFECTIVE FRONT
   WHICH EXTENDS FROM NWRN ND INTO EXTREME SERN MT AND EXTENDING WWD
   NEAR THE WY/MT BORDER.  MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE LOCATED OVER
   WRN SD AHEAD OF ONGOING QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER THE
   MT/WY/SD BORDER REGION.  A RECENT GIANT HAIL REPORT IN EXCESS OF 4
   INCHES WAS REPORTED AT 2345Z WITH THE CARTER COUNTY MT SUPERCELL. 
   SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WARM
   SECTOR NEAR THE MT/WY/SD AND LOCALES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
   PERHAPS 3 HOURS.  MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST RISK WILL
   ACCOMPANY THE STORMS TO THE N OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT OVER ROSEBUD AN
   POWDER RIVER COUNTIES.  

   THE 00Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWED AN 8.6 DEG H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AND WIND
   PROFILE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...AS A SLY LLJ
   STRENGTHENS TO 50 KT TOWARDS MID EVENING OVER SD/NEB AND FURTHER
   COALESCING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OCCURS...A TRANSITION TO AN
   ORGANIZED LINEAR SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE 02-04Z PERIOD OVER
   NWRN SD.  IN ADDITION TO SOME LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE ANCHORING
   UPDRAFT IN THE EVOLVING LINE...A HIGHER-END SEVERE WIND GUST RISK
   SEEMS POSSIBLE /65-90 MPH WINDS/ IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP INTO A BOW
   ECHO.

   ..SMITH.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44530694 45420752 46060682 45630444 45850286 45640124
               43410137 44530694 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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