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Mesoscale Discussion 1079
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NRN WV...NRN MD...FAR NRN VA...DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329...

   VALID 190418Z - 190545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SRN PA...NRN MD AND ERN WV. DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT AND DECREASING INSTABILITY...WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEYOND THE 09Z WW EXPIRATION TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE OH VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CNTRL PA
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN WV. THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
   MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACCORDING
   TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/K
   RANGE IN SRN PA AND NRN MD. THIS COMBINED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SHOULD
   SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SMALL BOWS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
   HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE SEVERE THREAT
   MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AS THE INSTABILITY
   DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   OTHER STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 329
   IN NRN MD TO NEAR THE DE STATE-LINE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO POSE A
   SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. DUE TO THE LIMITED
   SPATIAL THREAT AREA TO THE EAST OF WW 329...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38237640 38047786 38557921 39218043 39538004 40107862
               40907755 41167692 40687543 39047532 38237640 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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