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Mesoscale Discussion 1079
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

   Areas affected...East-central and southeast MO/south-central IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349...

   Valid 180640Z - 180915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe-weather threat in the short term (next
   2-3 hours or through 09Z) is expected to be across east-central and
   part of southeast MO through south-central IL.  Locally
   strong/damaging winds will be the primary threat, though hail cannot
   be ruled out with the stronger/sustained storms.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in VWP data at LSX indicated strong 50-kt
   westerly winds between 2.5-4.5 km agl likely supporting a recent
   eastward surge in a band of storms across east-central MO (44-kt
   wing gust at KSUS at 0603Z).  This band of storms is moving to the
   east-southeast at around 40 kt into a residual corridor of moderate
   instability located across southeast MO to southern IL.  Although
   most surface wind gusts during the last hour have been sub-severe,
   this recent observation of a stronger rear-inflow jet and
   sub-synoptic surface low nearby in west-central IL may support
   locally strong/damaging winds occurring across south-central IL
   through 09Z.  This would support local areal expansion of WW 349,
   and the rest of southern IL will be monitored for any additional
   need for a downstream severe-thunderstorm watch, if the east-central
   storms begin to accelerate.  Further support for an increase in
   storm intensity overnight in this region is attendant to height
   falls within the southern extent of an upper MS/lower MO Valleys
   upper trough.

   ..Peters.. 06/18/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38229118 38679065 39299047 39428927 39408848 39288779
               38878764 38108827 37819006 38029107 38229118 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2017
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