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Mesoscale Discussion 1079
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AND SERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 200331Z - 200430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER-TIER SEVERE WIND EVENT
   /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ IS INCREASING THIS EVENING.  A NEW
   WATCH...POSSIBLY A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH...BE COORDINATED AND ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30
   MINUTES.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0325Z SHOWS A HP SUPERCELL 25 MI N OF
   RAP WITH AN ELONGATED COLD POOL EXTENDING WWD NEAR THE
   LAWRENCE/PENNINGTON COUNTY LINE.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS OVER
   CROOK AND BUTTE COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE ACTIVITY
   FARTHER E AND ESTABLISH INTENSE UPDRAFTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   GUST FRONT.  IT APPEARS THIS STORM-SCALE EVOLUTION OR FURTHER
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SUPERCELL WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CONVECTIVE
   MODE TRANSITION FROM HP SUPERCELL TO SEVERE BOW ECHO.

   THE MOIST LOW-LEVELS /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ DOWNSTREAM COMBINED WITH
   THE STRENGTHENING OF A SLY 50+ KT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUX IN THE AREA.  THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLY
   MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /REFERENCE THE KUDX VAD/ COUPLED WITH
   STRONG BUOYANCY ARE RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS.  A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS S-CNTRL SD AND
   INTERSECTING THE MEADE COUNTY HP SUPERCELL WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO
   FOCUS A PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR AN UPPER-TIER SEVERE WIND GUST EVENT
   /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS 60-80 MPH WILL BECOME PROBABLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   DOWNDRAFTS.  LOCALIZED WIND SWATHS OF 80-100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...IN
   ADDITION TO TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CIRCULATIONS.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44400279 44359973 43779813 43069838 43580136 44400279 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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