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Mesoscale Discussion 1080
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347...348...

   Valid 180844Z - 181045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347, 348
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts remain a
   severe-weather threat across north-central into parts of central and
   eastern OK overnight to early this morning.  Given the recent
   increase in storms across north-central OK and potential for
   additional storms, a new WW is being considered for parts of central
   and eastern OK.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed an increase in
   storm intensity and potential severity (increase in MRMS MESH) with
   storms across north-central OK since 06Z.  Meanwhile, radar imagery
   also indicated southward-moving gravity waves across OK, with an
   associated wind shift extending generally east-west across the
   middle part of the state (or along and south of I-40).  This
   atmospheric phenomenon indicates the presence of a strong cap as
   observed by the 00Z OUN sounding.  A 30-45-kt southwesterly
   low-level jet extending into central OK per VWP data at FDR/TLX is
   resulting in strong low-level warm advection across central and
   southern OK, and supporting the continued development of new
   thunderstorms from Logan to Alfalfa Counties.  Cooling cloud tops
   across north-central OK per IR satellite imagery are suggesting a
   strengthening trend with the north-central OK storms.

   00Z NAM suggests the low-level jet will veer to west-southwest by
   12Z.  The current motion of the Logan/Payne Counties storm is toward
   the southeast.  However, the veering low-level jet would suggest a
   more southward trend in activity as it moves into central OK,
   possibly reaching PVJ and ADH in addition to MLC by 11-12Z.  The
   presence of steep midlevel lapse rates per 00Z soundings,
   most-unstable CAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg per objective analyses, and
   effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt should result in additional strong
   to severe storms developing/spreading to the south/southeast across
   central and parts of eastern OK through the early morning.  The
   presence of strong surface-based inhibition with south and southwest
   extent across OK could prove to be a limiting factor for the western
   delineation of strong/severe storms, with activity remaining mainly
   east of I-35 in southern OK.

   ..Peters.. 06/18/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36509697 36049608 35489568 34849519 34559618 34509659
               34719721 35279756 35529776 35969807 36219820 36569818
               36639763 36509697 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2017
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