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Mesoscale Discussion 1081
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 200752Z - 200845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED AS THE THREAT
   FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD EAST FROM SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
   AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA OCCURS JUST AFTER 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT FORWARD SPEED OF A STRONG TO SEVERE BOW IN
   EASTERN SD INDICATED IT WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 55-60 KT.  THIS IS
   AN ACCELERATION FROM EARLIER WHEN THE BOW WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
   SD WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WAS GREATER.  THIS ACCELERATION MAY
   BE AN INDICATION THAT THE BOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ELEVATED AS WAS
   EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST REASONING IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080. 
   DESPITE THIS FACTOR...A VERY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET OBSERVED BY THE
   FSD VAD CONTINUES TO DESCEND INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND AT 0740Z
   WAS LOCATED OVER HANSON AND MINER COUNTIES SD WITH WLY WIND SPEEDS
   UP TO 80+ KT AT 3000-3500 FT AGL.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES
   WITH EWD EXTENT...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED AS THE BOW PROCEEDS EWD
   INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44729644 44779403 44129363 43549363 43289399 43129571
               43169639 43329645 44729644 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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