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Mesoscale Discussion 1081
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/E NEB...SE SD...NW IA...FAR SW MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332...

   VALID 190615Z - 190745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF WIND WILL EVOLVE WITH
   DEVELOPING MCV OVER CNTRL NEB WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE E/NE THROUGH
   THE BULK OF WW 332. A MORE LOCALIZED RISK MAY DEVELOP OUT OF
   CONVECTION IN NE NEB ACROSS THE SIOUXLAND WHERE WW ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...MCV HAS FORMED JUST NE OF LBF WITH AN INTENSE
   CLUSTERING OF STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING E/NE AMIDST ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM 25 E YKN TO 20 S BBW AS OF 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
   CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL. DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE MO RIVER. WITH STRONG
   POTENTIAL BUOYANCY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A 50 KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLED
   IN OAX VWP DATA...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS PROBABLE WITH THESE
   STORMS. HOWEVER...MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AOA 3 KM AGL THAT LACKS
   APPRECIABLE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED/ROBUST
   SEVERE RISK.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41810002 42419892 42889783 43359729 43759692 43829602
               43429573 42639577 41929631 40769739 40619850 40629950
               40599989 41810002 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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