|Mesoscale Discussion 1082|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017
Areas affected...Central and eastern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351...
Valid 181218Z - 181415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351
SUMMARY...Greatest severe-weather threat (hail and damaging winds)
is expected to be mainly across the northern half of WW 351 through
14Z (9 AM). Local WFO areal expansion of WW 351 is possible across
parts of northeast and east-central OK.
DISCUSSION...At 1205Z, radar imagery indicated a band of storms
extending from Craig and Mayes Counties to Okfuskee County moving to
the east-southeast at 30-35 kt. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5
C/km per objective analyses extending from far western AR through
central/southern OK) and effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt suggest
any sustained storms will continue to have a threat for large hail.
Otherwise, locally strong wind gusts will remain a threat, with
uncertainty for damaging winds, given the lack of severe wind gusts
in the last 2-3 hours. Current radar trends and latest HRRR suggest
storms will progress through northeast and east-central OK toward an
area of undisturbed high theta-e air residing in western AR per
objective analyses. Meanwhile, the presence of stronger
surface-based inhibition with southward and southwestward extent in
OK should continue to inhibit storm development in those directions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34229519 34299615 34949680 35939683 36339661 36519603
36489531 36359486 36159465 35879451 35359463 34599490
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