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Mesoscale Discussion 1083
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WEST VIRGINIA...SRN
   PENNSYLVANIA...WRN/CNTRL MARYLAND...WRN/NRN VIRGINIA...AND THE WRN
   CAROLINAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201736Z - 201930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AT LEAST
   RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED/WEAK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY IN THE NEAR
   TERM...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO 20-21Z.  ONE OR MORE WATCHES PROBABLY
   WILL BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY BECOMING
   SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND TO THE
   IMMEDIATE LEE OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 
   THIS PROBABLY IS BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL.  A BELT OF CYCLONIC/WEST
   SOUTHWESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
   ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE
   CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.  AS THIS CONTINUES...A GRADUAL
   CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE SAME REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SPREADING
   EASTWARD.  

   AS THIS FORCING...AND STRENGTHENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS...BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
   CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F/
   ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
   RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE.  THIS SEEMS
   MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO OR AFTER 20-21Z...AND WILL INCLUDE THE RISK
   FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AT LEAST
   RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED/BRIEF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY NEAR A WEAK
   WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
   PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   PENNSYLVANIA.

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   CAE...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   38387776 37417836 35757925 34368119 34148190 34728290
               36208193 37958101 39268147 39828072 40177958 40417740
               39537604 38787684 38387776 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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