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Mesoscale Discussion 1083
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0805 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

   Areas affected...Northern and central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181305Z - 181500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A new WW may be needed across parts of northern and
   central AR this morning into the afternoon, as storms move into AR
   from eastern OK by mid morning.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms located in east-central and
   northeast OK to far northwest AR should continue to advance to the
   east-southeast across the northern half of AR through this morning,
   as the pre-convective air mass destabilizes.  Trends in morning
   visible satellite imagery indicated surface heating should occur
   across much of west-central, central to eastern AR today aiding in
   further destabilization and reduction of present inhibition per 12Z
   LZK sounding.  A moist environment (mean-mixing ratio at or above 17
   g/kg) would support additional convection within the destabilizing
   downstream air mass.  The presence of weak lower tropospheric flow
   per 12Z OUN/LZK soundings is a limiting factor for greater storm
   organization, with recent surface observations across eastern OK
   having sub-severe wind gusts.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 06/18/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34819437 36139435 36469295 36369117 35899095 35139098
               34549111 34449245 34499408 34819437 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2017
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