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Mesoscale Discussion 1084
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191606Z - 191830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN AND CNTRL VA DURING
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-DAY...DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VA HAS CONTRIBUTED MODERATE INSTABILITY
   /2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS OBSERVED OVER SERN
   WV MOVING ESEWD. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW THIS INITIAL
   ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS MIGHT
   UNDERGO TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER WRN VA DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF DOWN
   SLOPING BEFORE POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFYING. DEEPER FORCING ACCOMPANYING
   AN MCV OVER SWRN PA AND NRN WV MAY GLANCE THIS REGION...AND BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHING A BELT OF
   20-35 KT WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
   OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37558024 38217941 38457862 38157791 37487785 36637863
               36898031 37558024 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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