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Mesoscale Discussion 1084
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1084
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

   Areas affected...portions of western and central New York...northern
   and western Pennsylvania...central and eastern Ohio...and the
   northern West Virginia Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181631Z - 181830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradually increasing cu field will likely lead to
   scattered thunderstorm development over the next 1-2 hours.  With an
   associated risk for locally damaging winds and marginal hail likely
   to accompany stronger storms, WW issuance may be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows an increasing
   cumulus coverage/depth from southwest Ohio northeast to northwest
   Pennsylvania and western New York, in the vicinity of Lake Erie. 
   This appears to be loosely tied to a pre-frontal confluence axis
   lying across central Ohio, and hints of a lake-breeze boundary over
   western New York.  

   Diurnal heating through broken cloud cover in conjunction with
   boundary-layer dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s is supporting
   mixed-layer cape now in excess of 1000 J/kg across the area, with
   additional heating/destabilization expected to fuel eventual
   development of scattered thunderstorms -- aided increasing
   large-scale ascent spreading across the region ahead of the upper
   Great Lakes short-wave trough.  

   Morning RAOBs and the latest VWP data from the region indicate
   moderate/roughly unidirectional southwesterly flow with height,
   which will support some updraft organization and likely eventual
   upscale growth into lines/bands of storms.  With resulting potential
   for locally damaging winds arising from the organizing convection,
   along with some risk for hail, indications are that a WW will likely
   be required across this area within the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Goss/Weiss.. 06/18/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43737541 42557565 40047931 39268190 40288303 41518298
               41988217 42837950 43527883 43937642 43737541 

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