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Mesoscale Discussion 1085
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201922Z - 202115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS THE GEORGIA INTO
   SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
   LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH
   STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS CONTRIBUTED
   TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF
   THE GREATER ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA.  THIS IS GENERALLY ON THE
   SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...WHERE WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
   FLOW IS ONLY A RATHER MODEST 20 KT OR SO.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL AID
   CONTINUED PROPAGATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA INTO SOUTH
   CAROLINA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONGLY
   HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
   MID 90S.  WHILE THE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AHEAD OF CONVECTION IS ALSO NOT OPTIMAL...THE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION.  IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
   OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING STRENGTHENING/CONSOLIDATING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA COULD PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS EMERGING FROM GEORGIA LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...AS STORMS TRACK EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT.

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33228344 33968289 34398229 34858085 34527991 32878259
               32898480 33228344 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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