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Mesoscale Discussion 1086
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA THROUGH SCNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191902Z - 192030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH NRN IA AND SRN MN MAY POSE A
   THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN IL
   NWWD THROUGH NRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
   NWRN IA. STORMS THAT INITIATED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
   ARE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH WRN IA INTO SWRN MN. NEAR SFC WINDS
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE ESELY...AND VWP DATA SHOW STRONG VEERING
   WITHIN THE LOWEST 2 KM WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY UP TO 250 M2/S2
   BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
   DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS THEY MOVE
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. NEVERTHELESS...A NARROW CORRIDOR
   EXISTS WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT
   MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42949409 43909491 44789555 45139502 44319347 43449300
               42949409 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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