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Mesoscale Discussion 1086
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201945Z - 202145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA BY AROUND 21-22Z...MAINLY
   SOUTH OF ORLANDO.  IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
   FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ONE OR TWO MICROBURSTS MAY NOT
   BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   DISCUSSION...COLLIDING SEA BREEZE FRONTS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...APPEAR LIKELY TO LEAD TO INTENSIFYING
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY
   SOUTH OF ORLANDO INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  STRONG
   HEATING INTO THE MID 90S HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS
   AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
   CONTENT /2+ INCHES/...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AUGMENTED BY
   SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD GENERATE ONE OR TWO MICROBURSTS
   WITH LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28568137 28188104 27828105 27398090 27108121 26718147
               26958178 27428173 28568137 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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