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Mesoscale Discussion 1087
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191937Z - 192030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
   NORTHWARD ACROSS WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
   THIS FEATURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN SD AND FAR SE MT.  THESE STORMS
   ARE IN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY /500-1000 J PER
   KG MLCAPE/ AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 20-25 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE
   MODEST INSTABILITY...WEAK SHEAR...AND PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..COOK/MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45660373 45760353 45910304 45970262 45980226 45960126
               45530015 45189989 44649985 43910030 43730081 43650183
               43820256 44070293 44440332 44960382 45390386 45660373 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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