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Mesoscale Discussion 1088
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191940Z - 192045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MODEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS OVER ERN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO
   NWRN IL AND SWRN WI. SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   SPARSE AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO
   DICTATE OTHERWISE.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SQUALL LINE PERSISTS ACROSS ERN
   IA MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25-30 KT. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM NRN IL WWD INTO ECNTRL IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SQUALL LINE.
   THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
   MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG INDICATED. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING EWD WHERE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE COLD POOL
   INTERACTS WITH THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CEDAR
   RAPIDS ASOS REPORTED A GUST TO 48 KT ON THE 1925Z OBSERVATION...AND
   POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER WINDS
   WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
   AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   40449167 41349130 42429133 43089055 42528984 40949022
               40249101 40449167 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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