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Mesoscale Discussion 1088
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202024Z - 202130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
   NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND AND HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH
   CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NOTED
   WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  THE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KNOT DEEP SHEAR
   MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
   WEAK DEEP SHEAR...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES AND RELATIVELY
   STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS HAVE FAVORED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THESE
   STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
   TO WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET COINCIDENT WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION.  GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 06/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48980043 48989876 48289826 47309859 46809940 46930030
               47420092 47960097 48620070 48980043 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2015
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