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Mesoscale Discussion 1089
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...NW TX...FAR E-CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191943Z - 192145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE. PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL BE
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND NW TX. AIRMASS
   THROUGH THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
   80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70. NUMEROUS
   BOUNDARIES ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED
   FROM JUST W OF ICT SWWD TO JUST N OF AMA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
   OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LARGELY WASHED OUT IN SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER WRN OK.
   ADDITIONALLY...GRAVITY WAVE FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS ALSO APPEARS TO
   BE PROGRESSING SEWD IN NW TX/SRN TX PANHANDLE. RECENT CU NEAR CVS
   WAS LIKELY INITIATED BY THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL
   LIKELY ACT AS AN IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
   DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. 

   BETTER SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND EXPECTED OVER AREAS
   FARTHER E THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
   25 TO 35 KT...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND SOME SVR HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
   STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED STORM PROXIMITY/COVERAGE...A QUICK
   TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
   OF DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33430059 33480283 33660370 33930387 34530368 34740343
               35110269 36010016 36329956 36709876 36669771 35599769
               34349809 33589918 33430059 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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