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Mesoscale Discussion 1089
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SE MT...SW INTO CENTRAL ND...NW SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291813Z - 291945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODIC GUSTY
   WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
   TIME.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE MCD REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN STRONG DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW.
   STRONG HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES
   RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   50S. AS A RESULT...WEAK MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WAS NOTED IN 17Z
   MESOANALYSIS. SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR. THE STORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS ADEQUATE TO
   SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 20-25 DEGREES MAY
   ALLOW FOR PERIODIC STRONG GUSTS IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL IN THE
   STRONGER CELLS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47940215 47900146 47740065 47399999 46849951 46299983
               45810040 45140151 44890293 45170416 45590463 46020501
               46240521 46450477 47070358 47730279 47940215 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2016
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