MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151737Z - 151930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST EPISODIC BOUTS OF
   DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASIDE FROM THE
   POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT/SLOW-MOVING SUBTROPICAL
   UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE/QUASI-ORGANIZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
   OK IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF I-35. THIS APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   UPPER LOW...WITH A WARM AND VERY MOIST /LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN OK INTO EASTERN
   KS/WESTERN MO. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS NOT
   STRONG...AS MUCH AS 25-30 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY
   FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED PROPAGATION/QUASI-ORGANIZATION AND
   GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
   MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. MLCAPE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/EASTERN KS INTO
   WEST/SOUTHWEST MO. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL ACCOUNT FOR
   DOWNBURST/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OF NOTE...A 53 KT WIND GUST
   WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT KSWO/STILLWATER OK.

   ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2013


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35429732 36989704 38519598 38699438 38309302 37569275
               36669314 36389453 35689597 35429732